評(píng)論
打印
Don't crash it
特朗普別“撞車”
A trade war is the worst of many threats to global growth
貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最大的威脅
Look at the headlines, and you would struggle to believe that the global economy is in good health.
看看頭條新聞，你很難相信全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形式良好。
President Donald Trump continues to fire off volleys in his inchoate trade war,
唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)在其近期發(fā)起的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中繼續(xù)加薪助燃，
throwing financial markets into turmoil and drawing retaliation.
讓金融市場(chǎng)處于一片混亂，并引起更多經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)復(fù)。
The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, an activity that usually ends in a recession in America.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在提高利率，這一行為通常以美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退告終。
Tighter credit and a rising dollar are squeezing emerging markets,
信貸緊縮和美元升值正在擠壓新興市場(chǎng)，
some of which, such as Argentina, are under severe stress.
某些新興市場(chǎng)，如阿根廷，面臨巨大的壓力。
Yet the world economy is thriving.
但世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正蓬勃發(fā)展。
Growth has slowed slightly since 2017, but still seems to be beating the languid pace set in the five years before that.
自2017年以來，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有所減緩，但是仍然比之前五年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速快。
America may even be speeding up, thanks to Mr Trump's tax cuts and spending binge.
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)甚至?xí)鏊伲@都要?dú)w功于特朗普的減稅政策以及財(cái)政支出的增加。
A higher oil price, which in past economic cycles might have been a drag,
過去，油價(jià)上漲可能成為經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的累贅，
is today spurring investment in the production of American shale.
現(xiàn)如今卻會(huì)刺激美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣的生產(chǎn)投資。
Some forecasts have growth exceeding 4% in the second quarter of 2018.
有人預(yù)測(cè)2018年第二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)超過4%。
This sugar rush, however, brings dangers.
然而這種帶來甜頭的增速，也會(huì)引來危機(jī)。
The first is that it provides temporary political cover for Mr Trump's recklessness.
首先是給特朗普的魯莽草率提供了政治庇護(hù)。
The second is that, if America accelerates and the rest of the world slows,
其次是若美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速加快，而其他地區(qū)增速放緩，
widening differentials in interest rates would push up the dollar still more.
利率差異加大，會(huì)導(dǎo)致美元繼續(xù)升值。
That would worsen problems in emerging markets
如此一來，新興市場(chǎng)的問題加劇，
and further provoke Mr Trump by making it harder for him to achieve his goal of balanced trade.
特朗普會(huì)更加惱火于難以實(shí)現(xiàn)平衡貿(mào)易的目標(biāo)。
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