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The trade war is the biggest threat to global growth.
貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最大的威脅。
On June 15th the White House confirmed that a 25% tariff on up to $50bn of Chinese imports would soon go into effect.
美國對高達(dá)500億美元的中國進(jìn)口商品征收25%的關(guān)稅，6月15日，白宮證實(shí)這一舉措將很快生效。
Three days later, after China promised to retaliate,
三天后，在中國放言會進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)復(fù)后，
the president expanded, by as much as $400bn, the other goods America is threatening to tax.
特朗普將其他威脅要增稅的商品又增加了4000億美元的稅。
If he follows through, nine-tenths of roughly $500bn-worth of goods imported from China each year will face American levies.
如果特朗普堅(jiān)持下去，那么每年從中國進(jìn)口的價(jià)值約5000億美元的商品中，有90%將面臨美國的征稅。
Meanwhile, the European Union is poised to impose retaliatory tariffs in response to America's action against EU steel and aluminium.
與此同時(shí)，歐盟準(zhǔn)備對美國征收報(bào)復(fù)性關(guān)稅，以應(yīng)對美國對歐盟的鋼鐵和鋁征收關(guān)稅。
No wonder markets have caught the jitters.
難怪市場惴惴不安。
The president is unafraid of escalating trade disputes because he believes he has a winning hand.
特朗普不怕貿(mào)易爭端不斷，因?yàn)樗J(rèn)為自己一定會贏。
America buys from China almost four times as much as it sells there, limiting China's ability to match tariffs.
美國從中國進(jìn)口的商品幾乎是出口中國的四倍，這限制了中國在關(guān)稅方面與之抗衡的能力。
The White House hopes this imbalance will lead China to yield to its demands,
美國政府希望這種不平衡會讓中國屈服于它的要求，
some of which (cutting the theft of American firms'intellectual property) are more reasonable than others (shrinking the bilateral trade deficit).
某些要求(減少美國公司的知識產(chǎn)權(quán)被盜)比其他要求(減少雙邊貿(mào)易赤字)更為合理。
But Mr Trump overestimates his bargaining power.
但特朗普高估了他的議價(jià)能力。
If China runs out of American goods to tax, it could raise existing tariffs higher.
如果中國對所有的美國商品征稅，就可以將關(guān)稅提到更高。
Or it could harass American firms operating in China.
抑或?qū)υ谥袊\(yùn)營的美國公司造成困擾。
More important, the president's mercantilism blinds him to the damage he could inflict on America.
更重要的是，特朗普的重商主義讓他看不到對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的傷害。
He thinks it is better not to trade at all than to run a trade deficit.
特朗普認(rèn)為完全不進(jìn)行貿(mào)易往來比因貿(mào)易造成的赤字要好。
This folly also dictates his tactics towards Canada, Mexico and the EU.
這種愚蠢也讓他對加拿大、墨西哥和歐盟采取了關(guān)稅政策。
Mr Trump could yet withdraw from the North American Free-Trade Agreement and slap tariffs on cars.
特朗普可能仍會退出《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》,并對汽車強(qiáng)征關(guān)稅。
The problem is not that America depends on trade.
問題不在于美國依賴貿(mào)易。
In fact, it is a big enough free-trade area for the eventual damage to GDP, even from a fully fledged trade war,
事實(shí)上，這是一個(gè)足夠大的自由貿(mào)易區(qū)，對于最終國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的損害來講，即使是一場全面的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，
to be limited to a few percentage points (smaller, specialised economies are more dependent on trade and would suffer a lot more).
損失也會限制在幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以內(nèi)(較小的、專業(yè)化的經(jīng)濟(jì)體更依賴于貿(mào)易，會遭受更大的損失)。
Such self-in-flicted harm would impose a pointless cost on the average American household of perhaps thousands of dollars.
美國這種自損八百的行為會造成毫無意義的代價(jià)，平均到每個(gè)美國普通家庭，就是每家損失幾千美元。
That would be bad, but it would hardly be fatal.
情況很糟糕，但是決不至于致命。
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