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I'm not even telling you the story because I think we should be running more carefully controlled randomized trials in all aspects of public policy,
我跟你說這個故事也不是因為我認為，我們在公共政策的各個方面，做隨機抽樣試驗時，應該更小心，
although I think that would also be completely awesome.
雖然我覺得這樣做真的很好。
I'm telling you this story because Archie Cochrane, all his life, fought against a terrible affliction,
我告訴你這個故事是因為阿奇·卡克倫的一生， 都在與一種可怕的痛苦做斗爭。
and he realized it was debilitating to individuals and it was corrosive to societies.
而且他認識到這是一種削弱個人和腐蝕社會的東西。
And he had a name for it. He called it the God complex.
他為它取了個名字，他把它稱為“萬能神力”。
Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.
現在我可以來描述一下“萬能神力”的癥狀，非常非常簡單。
So the symptoms of the complex are, no matter how complicated the problem,
“萬能神力”的癥狀是：無論問題多么復雜，
you have an absolutely overwhelming belief that you are infallibly right in your solution.
你還是絕對徹底地相信，你的解決方案是準確無誤的。
Now Archie was a doctor, so he hung around with doctors a lot.
阿奇是個醫生，他一直和醫生們在一起。
And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.
醫生就常?；加羞@種毛病。
Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor, but I see the God complex around me all the time in my fellow economists.
我是個經濟學家，我不是醫生，我身邊的經濟學家們，也經常會出現這種“萬能神力”的癥狀。
I see it in our business leaders.
我看見它存在于我們的商業領袖身上。
I see it in the politicians we vote for -- people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,
我們看見它存在于我們推選的政客身上——這些人面對這及其復雜的情況時，
are nevertheless absolutely convinced that they understand the way that the world works.
仍然絕對堅信，他們知道這個世界是怎樣運轉的。
And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about, the world is simply far too complex to understand in that way.
而你們知道，我們在這里聽到的未來的數十億人的種種，用那種方法來理解這個復雜的世界顯然是太簡單化了。
