評論
打印
I have one more question.
我還有一個問題
Okay, one question, let's take one here.
好，再說最后一個
If you're theoretically someone who,
如果有這樣一個人
worked at Goldman Sachs and left there after six months, and is now studying CS at Standford.
在高盛干了六個月后辭職了，現在斯坦福念計算機科學專業
How would you recommend rethinking their competitive advantage?
您能不能給點建議，讓他找到競爭優勢？
I don't have a great,
我沒有很好的--
I'm not great at the psychotherapy stuff so I don't quite know how to solve this.
我不善于做心理治療，所以我也沒什么好辦法
There are these very odd studies they've done on people who go to business school.
在哈佛商學院有人
There's one they've done at Harvard Business school where it's sort of the anti-Asperger, personality.
做過一個非常奇怪的研究，找一些反亞斯伯格癥的人
We have people who are super extroverted, generally have low convictions, few ideas.
這些人極端外向，通常沒有什么信念與想法
And you have sort of a hothouse environment.
他們成長于溫室環境中
You put all these people in for two years.
研究者觀察這些人長達兩年
And at the end of it, they systematically end up, the largest cohort systematically ends up doing the wrong thing.
在最后，這群人成為了一群容易犯錯的人
They tried to catch the last wave.
他們想要抓住最后的機會
You know in 1989 everyone in Harvard tried to work with Mike Milken,
在1989年，哈佛的每個人都想為邁克·米爾肯工作
it was one or two years before he went to jail for all the junk bond stuff.
但過了一兩年他就因為垃圾證券的事進監獄了
They were never interested in Silicon Valley or tech,
他們對硅谷或技術一點不感興趣
except for '99 and 2000 when they timed the dot com bubble peaking perfectly.
直到99、00年左右，互聯網泡沫達到頂峰之時
They did, and then '05 to '07 was housing. Private equity, stuff like this.
05、07年房地產泡沫時他們又去搞房產。還有私人股本之類的東西
I do think this tendency for us to see competition as validation is very deep.
我認為用競爭驗證有效性這種傾向太深遠了
I don't think there's any sort of easy psychological formula to avoid it.
我不認為有什么簡單的心理學公式能夠避免此類傾向
I don't know what sort of therapy to recommend.
也沒什么能夠推薦的
But my first. My first starting point, which is only like maybe ten percent of the way,
但我首要的出發點是，也許只占考慮整個問題的一小部分
is to never under estimate how big a problem it is.
永遠不要低估問題的嚴重性
We always think this is something that afflicts other people.
我們總是認為別人會受到影響
It's easy for me to point to people in business schools or people at Harvard or people on Wall Street,
我們很容易就想到哈佛商學院或者華爾街那幫人
I think it actually does afflict all of us to a very profound degree.
但實際上我們也不能免于此類問題的困擾
We always think of advertising as things that work on other people.
我們總是認為廣告對其他人是有用的
How, who are all these stupid people who fall for all those ads on tv,
只有那些笨蛋才會相信電視上的廣告
they obviously work to some extent and they work, to a disturbing extant on all of us.
但這些廣告確實對我們所有人都有影響
And it's something we, we all should work to overcome. Thank you very much.
因此我們應該學著去克服這種影響。謝謝大家
