評論
打印
So, you know? Describe manufacturing in the 1980's.
大家想一想80年代的制造業
You could im-, you could do a better disk, build a better disk drive than anybody else.
你可以做出比別人好得多的光盤和光驅
You could take over the whole world.
你可以席卷全球
And two years later someone else would come along and replace yours.
但兩年后可能有人就會超過你，取代你
And the course of 15 years, you got vastly improved disk drives, so it had great benefit to consumers,
經過15年的不懈努力，光驅的性能得到了很大改善，對消費者很有好處
but it didn't actually help the people who started these companies.
但對于這些生產光驅的公司來說，卻沒什么好處
And so there's always this question about having a huge breakthrough in technology,
對于科技上的巨大突破來說總會有這樣的問題
but then also being able to say, explain why, yours will be the last breakthrough,
對于你來說，當你有所突破的時候
or at least the last breakthrough for a long time, or when you make a breakthrough.
你的創新必須是最后一個創新點，或者是一個可以保持很長時間的創新之處
And then you can keep improving on it at a quick enough pace that no one can ever catch up.
然后你繼續不懈努力，動作迅速以至于沒人能趕上你
So, if you have a structure of structure of the future where there's a lot of innovation
如果你身處于一個不斷創新的領域,
and other people will come up with new things in the thing you're working on.
其他人也在這個領域致力于發明新的東西
That's great for society. It's actually not that good for your business, typically.
這對社會是有好處的。但通常對你的公司來說則不是好事
And then economies of scale, we've already talked about.
接著我們再說說規模經濟，之前說講過了
So I think this last mover thing is very critical.
我認為“笑到最后”這事挺關鍵的
I'm always, you know, I don't wanna overdo the chess analogies,
我經常用下國際象棋來舉例
but the first mover in chess is someone who plays white.
國際象棋中白棋先走
White is about a 1/3 of a pawn advantage, so there's a small advantage to going first.
白棋約有1/3個兵的優勢，因此先走是有小小優勢的
You wanna be the last mover, who wins the game, so there's always the, Capablanca world champion,
你想要成為笑到最后的贏家，世界冠軍Capablanca說過
Capablanca must begin by studying the end game, and I do think that is.
學習國際象棋必須從殘局開始，我對此非常贊同
While I wouldn't say that's the only thing you should study.
盡管這并不是你需要學的唯一的東西
