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Microsoft was the last operating system, at least for many decades.
微軟的操作系統笑到最后，已經幾十年了
Google is the last search engine.
谷歌的搜索引擎笑到最后
Facebook will be valuable if it turns out to be the last, social networking site.
如果Facebook在社交網站這塊也能笑到最后，也是很有價值的
One way to think of this last mover of value
可以這樣想，這些笑到最后的公司
is this idea that most of the value in these companies exists far in the future.
在未來相當長的一段時間內還會繼續發展
If you do a discounted cash flow analysis of a business.
如果你分析一下這些公司按現值計算的現金流量
You look at, you have sort of all these profit streams. You have a growth rate.
看一下他們的利潤流和增長率
The growth rate's much higher than the discount rate.
你會發現增長率比貼現率高得多
And so most of the value exists far in the future.
公司的價值在未來相當長一段時間內還會繼續保持
I did this exercise At PayPal in March of 2001.
01年3月我在Paypal也做過這個分析
We'd been in business for about 27 months.
那時我們的公司已經運轉了27個月了
And we sort of had, the growth rate was 100% a year.
我們當時每年的增長率是100%
We were discounting future cashflows by about 30%.
我們用大約30%的貼現率進行貼現
And it turned out that about three quarters of the value of the business, as of 2001,
然后我們發現01年公司3/4的價值
came from cash flows in years 2011 and beyond.
來自于11年及以后的現金流
And whenever you do the math on any of these tech companies, you get an answer that's something like that.
不論你對哪家公司做此類分析結果都是相似的
So if you are trying to analyze any other tech companies in Silicon Valley, Airbnb, Twitter, Facebook,
如果你試圖用這種方法去分析硅谷中其他的科技公司，例如Airbnb Twitter或者Facebook
any emerging internet companies, any of the ones in Y-Combinator.
任何新興的互聯網公司或者YC資助的公司
The math tells you that three quarters, 80, 85% of the value is coming from cash flows in years 2024 and beyond.
通過計算你會發現3/4、80%甚至85%的公司價值都來源于2024年及以后的現金流
It's very, very far in the future.
這是很遠的未來了
