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Indiana very reliably republican voting state
印第安納一直是忠實的共和黨支持者
Most polls show it still leaning McCain but not by much
雖然很多民調顯示選民仍傾向麥凱恩，但他的優勢已變得微弱
Missouri used to be a bellwether state used to be who wins Missouri wins the election
密蘇里一直被認為是大選的風向標，曾有贏密蘇里者贏大選的說法
Missouri is southern part mid-western
密蘇里屬南部地區中西部
S.t Louis suburbs pratically eastern in its voting patterns anyway
然而圣路易斯城郊的投票傾向完全屬于東部模式
So it's pretty much neck and neck as well, Florida trending for Obama
因此兩黨在密蘇里可謂勢均力敵。佛羅里達州傾向于支持奧巴馬
and a lot of surprises for a lot of people to see
這使很多人感到驚訝
North Carolina now trending in the democratic direction as well
北卡羅來納州如今也傾向民主黨
and that has something to do with its senatorial race as well as presidential race
這和該州的參議員競選有點關系，與總統候選人本身也有關
just a few others, oh, Virginia and West Virginia
看看其他州的情況，弗吉尼亞，西弗吉尼亞
If ok this was made Virginia, West Virginia as a few days ago
這幅圖中我們還能看到這兩個州幾天前的選情
Trending McCain, but just barely, it's narrowed way down
麥凱恩以微弱優勢領先，但其優勢非常小
and some of the polls now show that Obama ahead
有一些民調顯示奧巴馬領先
This is a historical if this would happen
這將具有歷史意義
If this map were to play out
如果最終結果如地圖所示
And if Virginia voted for Obama
如果弗吉尼亞選了奧巴馬
And West Virginia voted for McCain
西弗吉尼亞選了麥凱恩
This would be a real historical reversal
這將是一個歷史性的逆轉
It used to be that West Virginia was one of the most reliably democratic voting states
西弗吉尼亞曾是民主黨最忠實的支持者之一
Unionized coal miners, democratic party
工會及礦工都傾向民主黨
if you remember that 88 map
如果你還記得1988年的選情地圖
when Dukakis won so few states
當年只有零星幾個州支持杜卡基斯
he won West Virginia and won it pretty handily
但他贏下了西弗吉尼亞而且贏得輕而易舉
Well, how do we explain the shift if it happens
若這種逆轉真的發生，應如何解釋?
Well, we can go back to Dave Leipe's Atlas
我們回到Dave Leipe's的地圖集，
and look at the primary, The democratic primary and look at the Clinton vote there in red
看看初選的情況，民主黨初選的情況，紅色表示支持希拉里的地區，支持奧巴馬的為綠色
and the Obama vote there in green, Obama, boy, he strike out in West Virginia
奧巴馬真是在西弗吉尼亞殺出了一條血路
He hardly got any votes at all, I mean very low
當時他得票率很低
many of this counties 10% 15% maybe 20%
他在很多縣的支持只有10%或者15%到20%左右
among the counties in Virginia same story but the eastern counties
他在弗吉尼亞的一些縣支持率也很低，但在東部的縣
whether they're the wealthy suburb counties like Loudoun county
無論是在富裕的郊縣如勞登縣
or poor African-American counties voting for Obama
還是在貧窮的非洲裔聚居地都支持奧巴馬
