評(píng)論
打印
In front of millions of people each of them think they are an expert on what are good baseball plaers
有幾百萬(wàn)人評(píng)價(jià)他們的一舉一動(dòng) 他們中的每一個(gè)人都認(rèn)為 他們是成為優(yōu)秀棒球運(yùn)動(dòng)員方面的專家
They had statistics attached to every move they made on their job
他們做的每一件事都有數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)
And yet they were misvalued because the wider world was blind to their luck
但他們卻被錯(cuò)估了 因?yàn)檫@個(gè)世界忽視了他們的運(yùn)氣成分
So I think you have to ask if a professional athlete paid millions of dollars a year can be misvalued who can't be?
所以你不得不問(wèn) 如果一個(gè)百萬(wàn)美元身價(jià)的 職業(yè)球員可以被錯(cuò)估 那誰(shuí)不會(huì)被錯(cuò)估呢？
If the supposedly pure meritocracy of professional sports can't distinguish between lucky and good, who can?
如果完全奉行精英主義的職業(yè)體壇 無(wú)法區(qū)分好運(yùn)和優(yōu)異 誰(shuí)又能夠區(qū)分呢？
The Moneyball story has practical implications
《點(diǎn)球成金》這個(gè)故事具有實(shí)際意義
If you use better data, you can find better values there are always market inefficiencies to exploit, and so on
如果你使用更好的數(shù)據(jù) 你可以找到更好的價(jià)值 總會(huì)存在價(jià)值有待挖掘的市場(chǎng)低效配置 等等
But it has a broader and less practical message don't be deceived by life's outcomes
但它有一個(gè)更廣泛而不那么實(shí)際的信息 不要被生活的結(jié)果蒙騙
Life's outcomes, while not entirely random have a huge amount of luck baked into them
生活的結(jié)果 雖不是完全隨機(jī)的 卻摻雜了很多運(yùn)氣成分在其中
Above all, recognize that if you have had success you have also had luck, and with luck comes obligation
最重要的 是要認(rèn)識(shí)到 如果你獲得成功 你也同時(shí)曾獲得好運(yùn) 而運(yùn)氣帶來(lái)義務(wù)
You owe a debt, and not just to your Gods
你欠了一筆債 不只是欠你的神
You owe a debt to the unlucky
你也欠那些沒(méi)你那么好運(yùn)的人的債
I make this point because—along with this speech it is something that will be easy for you to forget
我特別提出這一點(diǎn) 是因?yàn)楹瓦@個(gè)演講一樣 這將是你很容易遺忘的東西
I now live in Berkeley, California
我現(xiàn)在住在加州伯克利
A few years ago, just a few blocks from my home a pair of researchers in the Cal psychology department staged an experiment
幾年前 就在離我家?guī)讉€(gè)街區(qū)遠(yuǎn)的地方 加大心理系的 幾個(gè)研究人員搞了一個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)
They began by grabbing students like you to use like lab rats
他們像抓小白鼠一樣 找來(lái)了一批學(xué)生
Then they broke the students into teams, segregated by sex
然后他們給學(xué)生分組 按性別分開(kāi)
Three men, or three women, per team
每組三個(gè)男生 或者三個(gè)女生
Then they put these teams of three into a room and arbitrarily assigned one member of the team to be the leader
然后他們讓這樣的小組進(jìn)到房間里 然后隨機(jī)選取三人中的一個(gè)作為組長(zhǎng)
Then they gave them some complicated moral problem to solve say what should be done about academic cheating or how to regulate drinking on campus
然后他們讓他們處理各種復(fù)雜的道德問(wèn)題 比如說(shuō)應(yīng)該如何對(duì)待學(xué)術(shù)造假 或者如何控制校園酗酒問(wèn)題
