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And, as I have tried to show, democracy is in deep trouble in America. The financial crisis has inflicted hardship on a population that does not like to face harsh reality. President Obama has deployed the "confidence multiplier" and claims to have contained the recession. If there is a double dip the population will become susceptible to all kinds of fear mongering and populist demagogy. If President Obama fails, the next administration will be sorely tempted to create diversions from troubles at home and that could be very dangerous for the world.
此外，正如我要說明的，美國民主已深陷泥潭。金融危機使得一部分不思面對殘酷現實的美國民眾陷入了困境。奧巴馬總統采用了“鼓舞士氣”的做法，聲稱經濟衰退已得到控制。如果經濟再次下滑，人們會極易受到各種蠱惑人心的謠言的影響的。如果奧巴馬總統下臺，那么，下屆政府將只能通過制造激烈的事端來轉移人們對國內問題的注意力，這將對世界和平構成威脅。
President Obama has the right vision, but he needs to be more far-sighted. He believes in international cooperation rather than the Bush-Cheney idea of might is right. But he is preoccupied with many pressing problems. Reinventing the international financial system is not high on his agenda. Some of his economic advisers still seem to believe that the efficient market hypothesis is valid, except once in a hundred years. The financial institutions that have survived are in a stronger competitive position than ever before and they will resist a systematic overhaul that would curb their powers. What is lacking is a general recognition that the system is broken and needs to be reinvented. That is why it would be so important that the theory of financial markets I have outlined in these lectures should gain wider acceptance.
奧巴馬總統的視角是對的，但眼光不夠長遠。他相信的是國際合作，而不是布什—切尼政府所信奉的強權就是公理的觀點。但他的頭腦正在被其他很多緊迫的問題所困擾，而重塑國際金融體系在他的議事日程似乎排不上名次。他的一些經濟顧問似乎仍然相信絕大多數情況下有效市場假說的正確性，除了百年難遇的情況。那些幸存下來的金融機構比以往更有競爭優勢，它們會抵制全面的改革，因為那樣會限制它們的權力。現在所缺乏的是一種普遍的共識，即人們應該認識到舊有的體制已經瓦解，需要重建。我今天所講的關于金融市場的理論受到更廣泛接受是很重要的，原因正在于此。
