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We are at the end of an era, but we are not fully aware of it. The two forms of economic organization — State Capitalism and International Capitalism are in competition with each other. Neither of them is attractive. The Washington Consensus has failed. International Capitalism in its present form has proven itself inherently unstable because it lacks adequate regulation. It's also highly unjust because it favors the haves over the have-nots.
我們正處在一個時代的終結，只是這一點我們還沒有充分意識到。兩種經濟組織形式——國家資本主義與國際資本主義在互相競爭，而兩者都缺乏足夠的吸引力。《華盛頓共識》已經失敗，目前的國際資本主義由于缺乏足夠的監管，內在的不穩定性已被顯現。此外，它也很不公正，嫌貧愛富。
While the prevailing multilateral system will try to reconstitute itself, China will expand on a bilateral basis. China is, of course, part of the multilateral system but it does not occupy within that system a position that is commensurate with its current anticipated perspective strength; therefore its participation in the international financial institutions is rather passive and its active expansion is likely to go through bilateral channel. For instance, China will complain about the role of the dollar and will promote the role of Special Drawing Rights but it is unlikely to allow the renminbi to become freely convertible because that would destroy the mechanism that has allowed the state to harvest the fruits of cheap Chinese labor through an undervalued currency. China will continue to maintain capital controls but will establish bilateral clearing accounts denominated in renminbi with countries like Brazil. This will diminish the status of the dollar as the international currency without actually replacing it.
盡管目前的多邊體系會力圖實現自身的重組，但中國仍將積極地進一步拓展雙邊渠道。誠然，中國也是這個多邊體系的一部分，但它目前在其中的地位與其國力是不相稱的，因此它在國際金融機構的參與是較為被動的，它的積極發展很可能通過雙邊渠道進行。例如，中國會不滿于美元的作用，并將促進“特別提款權”的作用，但它不太可能允許人民幣自由兌換，因為這樣會破壞現有機制。在目前的機制下，中國可以通過貨幣貶值從廉價勞動力中獲利。中國將繼續控制資本，但會同巴西等國建立以人民幣為主導的雙邊清算賬戶。這樣就會削弱美元作為國際貨幣的地位，而無需取代它。
