評論
打印
And yet, in spite of that, artificial life support has been successful. Barely a year after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, financial markets have stabilized, stock markets have rebounded, and the economy is showing signs recovery. People want to return to business as usual and think of the Crash of 2008 as a bad dream.
而盡管如此，人工生命保障系統(tǒng)還是成功地起了作用。在雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)僅一年時間后，金融市場就穩(wěn)定下來。股市反彈，經(jīng)濟開始出現(xiàn)復蘇跡象。人們想恢復到正常的經(jīng)濟生活中，而把2008年經(jīng)濟崩潰看成是一場噩夢。
I regret to tell you that the recovery is liable to out of steam and may even be followed by a "double dip" although I am not sure whether it will be in 2010 or 2011.
很遺憾地告訴大家，經(jīng)濟復蘇的進程可能會減緩，甚至可能出現(xiàn)“再次衰退”，盡管我還不確定它會發(fā)生在2010年還是 2011 年。
My views are far from unique but they are at variance with the prevailing mood. The longer the turnaround lasts the more people will come to believe in it, but in my judgment, the prevailing mood is far removed from reality. This is characteristic of far-from-equilibrium situations when perceptions tend to lag behind reality. To complicate matters, the lag works in both directions. Most people have not yet realized that this crisis is different from previous ones — that we are at the end of an era. Others including me failed to anticipate the extent of the rebound. The confusion is not confined to the financial sphere; it extends to the entire international arena.
我的觀點絕不是異端，但的確與眾不同。周期持續(xù)的時間越長，相信它的人就越多。但是，在我看來，大眾的想法與現(xiàn)實還是有很大差距的。這正是“遠離平衡狀態(tài)”的典型特征，即認知滯后于現(xiàn)實。更為復雜的是，滯后體現(xiàn)在兩個方向。大多數(shù)人還沒有意識到這次危機不同于以往，沒有認識到我們處于一個時代的尾聲；而其他人，包括我在內(nèi)，未能預見到經(jīng)濟反彈的程度。這種混亂狀況不僅局限于金融領(lǐng)域，而且還波及整個國際舞臺。
