評論
打印
Thank you. In these lectures, I have offered a conceptual framework for a better understanding of human events. These events are not determined by timelessly valid scientific laws. Such laws exist, of course, but they are not sufficient to determine the course of events. The complexity of the situations is one reason, and the role of the participants' thinking is another.
謝謝大家。在這個系列講座中，我為更好地理解人類活動設計了一個 概念性的框架。這些活動并不是由永恒不變的正確的科學定律所決定的。當然，這種定律的確存在，但它們還不足以主宰活動的進程。原因之一是環境的復雜性，而參與者思維的作用是其另一個原因。
I have focused on the reflective, two-way connection between the participants' thinking and reality, and I emphasized the causal role that misunderstandings and misconceptions play in shaping reality. But these influences have been strangely ignored. They introduce an element of uncertainty into the subject matter which, except in the simplest situations, make it impossible to predict the future.
我重點解釋了參與者的思維與現實之間反射性的雙向聯系。我強調了錯誤理解和錯誤概念在塑造現實中所起的因果作用。但這些影響都被人們莫名其妙地忽略掉了，而正是這些影響，給事物摻入了一些不確定因素。因此，除了極其簡單的情況外，預測未來變得不太可能。
One can still sketch out various plausible scenarios and evaluate their likelihood. One can also prescribe desirable outcomes, I have done both, many times. Indeed, I can claim to be a specialist in it, focusing on predictions as an investor and prescriptions as a philanthropist I have been successful enough in the former to be able to afford the latter. I should like to devote today's discussion to this dual task.
但我們依然可以擬定出各種可能的方案并對其進行可行性評估，也可以采取措施，達到我們想要的結果。我在這兩方面都已經嘗試了很多次。的確，我可以說自己很在行。作為投資者，我善于預測；作為公益慈善家，我主要為問題提供解決方案；作為投資者，我很成功，并能夠借此支持我的慈善活動。那么今天的演講，我就想從這兩個方面來展開。
