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商業報道:政策過于緊縮,經濟增長受抑

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When Europe's been peppered with uncertainty the whole year. And Monti was always a technocratic government that came in with a specific mandate. Then of course, Italy's a democracy, said you will step aside and there's an election. Could come back as a politician. Maybe not. I think the fear is who could replace him. But I think he's done an excellent job and he's steadied the ship. But he did say he would step aside after a year, done certain measures.

今年一整年內歐洲經濟充滿不確定性因素。蒙蒂政府是臨危受難,肩負特殊使命的技術專家政府。當然,意大利是一個民主國家,蒙蒂即將辭職,將進行新的一輪選舉。這一次可能是由政治家來擔當此重任嗎?可能不會。我想,人們擔心的是,誰能夠取代蒙蒂?因為我認為,他的工作非常出色,穩定了局勢。但是他曾說過,在采取了一定措施后的一年后他要辭職。

Now here's the question. Is it the issue of Monti stepping aside when he was sort of the steady hand on Italy's unsteady finances, if you like? Or is it respective Berlusconi coming back that really has people worried? Because the bond markets, we see the yield rising on the 10-year Italian bonds as it seems that stock markets plummet in Milan.

現在的問題是,蒙蒂目前已成為意大利不穩定財政的堅定領導人時,他真的要退出政府嗎,你希望這樣嗎?或者,人們真正擔心的是貝盧斯科尼再次掌權。因為,雖然債券市場的10年長期意大利國債收益正在增加,米蘭的股票市場看起來卻在大幅下跌。

Yes, but it's a one-day wonder that you saw the euro come off this morning, bounced right back. These markets are incredibly volatile and there's not much to do. So people are obviously to sell the story. Yes, of course, there's a few of them may replace him. Technocratic government did what the markets liked, gave us certainty but as I said, this is a democracy and democracies create uncertainty. And so who'll replace him? We don't know. But I think this big story moves on to Spain, the ESM and whether the ECB's going to start printing or not.

是的,但是這只是一天的奇跡,今早歐元開始好轉,有所反彈。毫無疑問,市場是易變波動的,有時候,人們有心無力。因此,人們很容易被說服,是的,當然能取代蒙蒂的人不多。技術型政府可以采取任何市場喜歡的措施,給我們帶來確定性。但是,如我已經說過的,這是一個民主國家,民主就會產生不確定性。因此,對于,誰能取代蒙蒂,無人所知。但是,我認為,現在歐洲現在的大問題已經轉移到了西班牙,額外西班牙貨幣以及歐洲中央銀行是否啟動印制?

OK. Now that's an interesting one. 2013 looming as I was saying before. Does that mean we're going to have a full-on Spanish bailout in the early months of next year?

是的。是讓人感興趣的問題。2013將至,這是否意味著,明年的最初幾個月,將進行西班牙全面救市?

I think could come even late this year. I think if it wasn't for the fiscal cliff and the market changing its focus over tension onto the US, we would have pressurized already Spain into coming to the ESM, which as you know, ESM stands for Extra Spanish Money. So it shouldn't be a surprise when they confirm.

我想可以要到明年晚些時候。我認為,如果不是到財政懸崖,以及市場將壓力焦點轉向美國,我們不會迫于壓力,讓西班牙采用額外西班牙貨幣,你知道,ESM的意思。如果此事得以確定,也在意料之中。
Rather the European stability.
只要歐元區能夠穩定。

Yes, absolutely.

是的,絕對如此。

Might even have gotten lost in the alphabet soup already that EU’s created to try and solve the eurozone crisis. Well, what about credit rating cuts for some of these countries, notably just going back to the issue of Italy and the face of so much uncertainty? This is going to make it very difficult for these countries to try to cut their enormous amount of debt of debt-to-GDP, cut their budgets. And if they do get downgraded, will their debt becomes more expensive.

也許問題都能夠在這一縮寫詞語中得到解決,歐盟創造該詞語以試圖解決歐元區危機。不過,這幾個國家的信用評級下調情況如何?特別是,剛才談到的意大利問題,我們又如何面對這么多不確定性?這些國家試圖減少債務率(債務占國內生產總值的比重)債務以及減少預算,都將變得非常艱難。如果他們的信用評級下調,那么他們的債務將變得格外昂貴。

Well, not in the case we've seen of France. They got downgraded with, again, a one-day wonder. They sold off and French yields are straight back down again. The problem is if your debt-to-GDP starts rising but you think austerity's the answer, and you do austerity but growth starts to plummet, then you need more austerity and then growth goes down. And that's the Greek situation we’ve got ourselves in for. So I'd say just ignore the rating agencies and try to do the right thing. Get growth going and don't overdo the austerity.

是的,不過我們看到法國的情況例外。法國被降級了,不過這也是一天之內的奇跡。他們的股票低價拋光,法國再次收回了收益。問題在于,如果債務率開始上升,但是你卻認為只有采取緊縮政策,并且你實施了緊縮政策,但是增長急劇下降,于是,你需要采取更多的緊縮,增長繼續衰減。這就是我們讓自己陷入希臘危機的原因所在。因此,我寧愿大家暫時忽略評級機構,而專注于做正確的事情:讓經濟增長,不要過于倚重緊縮政策。

重點單詞   查看全部解釋    
election [i'lekʃən]

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n. 選舉

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alphabet ['ælfəbit]

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n. 字母表,基本原理(元素),符號系統

 
certainty ['sə:tnti]

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n. 確定,確實的事情

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volatile ['vɔlətail]

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adj. 揮發性的,反復無常的,易變的,易爆的 n. 揮

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enormous [i'nɔ:məs]

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adj. 巨大的,龐大的

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fiscal ['fiskəl]

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adj. 財政的,國庫的

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solve [sɔlv]

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v. 解決,解答

 
certain ['sə:tn]

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adj. 確定的,必然的,特定的
pron.

 
issue ['iʃju:]

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n. 發行物,期刊號,爭論點
vi. & vt

 
politician [.pɔli'tiʃən]

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n. 政治家,政客

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