Submission? A proposal for an orderly EuroZone exit; The prize £390,000 dollars. And today turns out we have a winner.The Wolfson Economics Prize has been awarded to Roger Bootle and his team fromCapital Economics, that's a UK research consultancy, for their submission.
提交書?一份井然有序退出歐盟的提議;獎金為390,000美元。今天公布了贏家。沃爾芬森經濟獎號授予了羅杰·布托爾及其團隊凱投宏觀所提交的研究報告,這是一家英國經濟咨詢機構。
Now after the Nobel Prize for Economics,what all we might hear is the second biggest cash prize awarded for this field.Roger Bootle's proposal is called "Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide."He told us how it might work and why he thinks that a real Euro Zone exit ismore likely now than it's ever been.
目前,在大家所聽說的經濟學家獎項中,沃爾芬森經濟學獎號稱是獎金額僅次于諾貝爾獎的經濟學家獎項。羅杰·布托爾的提議名為《離開歐盟:一份實用手冊》。他告訴我們,退出歐盟的方法,并且他認為此時,以往任何時候都更可能發生退出歐盟的情況。
Well, I think the crisis has been buildingup gradually but continually, every so often you get an attempt to fix it orsomething, that's for traders, of fixing of it. And then it proves to beinadequate, which is just another one of those faces. I think the backgroundcrisis is actually intensifying, probably a breakup I would have mentioned: Isit anything more likely now than it was a few months ago?
我認為這一危機是逐漸累積的,但是也是連續的。經常地,你嘗試地做一些修改或者為貿易者來說的一些修改。不過,這樣的修修補補最后被證明是不夠的,只不是同一修改的不同表現而已。我認為這一危機的背景確實業已強化,或者是我提到過的另一個詞,已被破壞:難道此時不比幾個月前更可能發生些什么嗎?
Our plan envisages a country preparing insecret, a small group of officials. And then, enacting that plan very quickly,essentially overnight, announcing to the populous that domestic monetaryamounts have beenredenominated into a new currency,let's call it the drachma, at one for one. So a given amount in Euros becomesthe same amount in drachmas. Meanwhile, on the exchanges, on the foreignexchanges, the drachma depreciates sharply. Perhaps it would be one up to 1.7,2 to 1, we don't know. That's not a problem. That is the essence of thesolution.
我們預想:一個國家的一小組官員悄然著手準備,然后,極其快速地實施這一退出計劃,比較理想的是在一夜之間,向公眾宣布,國內貨幣額已經開始采取一種新的貨幣形式,讓我們先舉例稱之為德國克馬。因此給定的歐元貨幣額,此時為相同數量的德國克馬貨幣額。同時,兌換時,及進行外匯兌換時,德國克馬急劇貶值。可能會是1至1.7,2比1,我們無法得知。不過,那不是問題,反而是問題解決的根本之所在。
The country then redenominates all itsdebts, its domestic debt, into this currency. It establishes a newpolicyregime, bans wageindexation, establishes tightcontrols on fiscal policy. And then lies back and hopes, I think correctly,that before very long, that much lower exchange rate will bring renewedeconomic growth.
這個國家然后以這一貨幣形式重新表現了所有負債,國內負債。此時,它建立一種新的政策體制,禁止工資指數化,并對財政政策建立嚴格控制。到那時,該國可以休息一下,展開期待,我認為很可能地,經歷很長的一段時間,極低的外匯匯率將重新帶來經濟增長。