A proposal for an orderly Euro Zone exit; The prize? 390,000 dollars. And today turns out we have a winner. The Wolfson Economics Prize has been awarded to Roger Bootle and his team from Capital Economics, that's a UK research consultancy, for their submission.
一個有序退出歐元區的提案:代價是?39萬美元。事實證明,今天有一個贏家。羅杰·布托,及其團隊凱投宏觀榮獲沃爾夫森經濟獎,以表彰其對歐元區國家退出聯盟方法的研究。凱投宏觀是一家英國頂級研究咨詢公司。
Now after the Nobel Prize for Economics, what all we might hear is the second biggest cash prize awarded for this field. Roger Bootle's proposal is called "Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide. " He told us how it might work and why he thinks that a real Euro Zone exit is more likely now than it's ever been.
諾貝爾經濟學獎過后,經濟領域的第二大獎項會花落誰家,答案即將揭曉。羅杰·布托的提議是:“離開歐元區:一項實用指南。”他告訴我們這項提議的作用,為什么他會覺得退出歐元區勢在必行。
Well, I think the crisis has been building up gradually but continually, every so often you get an attempt to fix it or something, that's for traders, of fixing of it. And then it proves to be inadequate which is just another one of those faces. I think the background crisis is actually intensifying, probably a breakup I would have mentioned: Is it anything more likely now than it was a few months ago?
好吧,我認為危機是慢慢積累起來的,而不是一蹴而就的。一遇到問題,就趕緊想辦法補救,那是交易員的做派。后來又證明之前的做法不合理,那只是其中而已。我認為在全球金融危機背景下,矛盾還在深化,可能會突然爆發。我必須提出的是:相比幾個月前,現在退出的可能性是不是更大?
Our plan envisages a country preparing in secret, a small group of officials. And then, enacting that plan very quickly, essentially overnight, announcing to the populous that domestic monetary amounts have been redenominated into a new currency, let's call it the drachma, at one for one. So a given amount in Euros becomes the same amount in drachmas. Meanwhile, on the exchanges, on the foreign exchanges, the drachma depreciates sharply. Perhaps it would be one up to 1.7, 2 to 1, we don't know. That's not a problem. That is the essence of the solution.
我們的計劃就是設想一個在秘密籌備的國家,一小群政府官員。然后,迅速地制定出計劃,實質是一夜之間就向眾人宣布國內貨幣數量需由新采用的貨幣重新計價,我們把他叫做德拉克馬。一歐元相當于一德拉克馬。所以,給定數量的歐元就變成了同等數量的德拉克馬。與此同時,在外幣兌換市場德拉馬克大幅貶值。也許匯率會高達1.7:1或是2:1,我們也不知道。這不是問題,而是解決問題的關鍵。
The country then redenominates all its debts, its domestic debt, into this currency. It establishes a new policy regime, bans wage indexation, establishes tight controls on fiscal policy. And then lies back and hopes, I think correctly, that before very long, that much lower exchange rate will bring renewed economic growth.
然后該國要重新為其所有的國內債務計價,以這種貨幣計價。這樣就會締造出一個新的政團,會禁止工資指數化,會對財政政策實行嚴格的控制。然后,停下來觀望。我認為不久之后,匯率會降得更低,這將帶來煥然一新的經濟增長。
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