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The Federal Reserve is set to follow a much-anticipated interest rate rise this week with two to four more increases next year, leading economists say.
領(lǐng)先經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)在本周備受期待的加息之后，明年還會(huì)有兩到四次加息。
Markets are bracing themselves for the first US rate rise in almost 10 years on Wednesday. A Financial Times poll of 51 top economists highlights the stakes as any increase would have profound consequences for the world economy, particularly emerging markets.
市場正準(zhǔn)備迎接本周三美國近10年來的首次加息。英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》對(duì)51名頂級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的調(diào)查突顯出這次加息事關(guān)重大，因?yàn)槿魏渭酉⒍紝?duì)世界（尤其是新興市場）經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。
While the Fed’s previous September forecasts pointed to four rises of a cumulative 100 basis points next year, markets have priced in a more gradual tightening process, because of doubts over the US economy’s capacity to weather tighter monetary policy and potential turbulence abroad.
盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在之前的9月預(yù)測中指出，明年將會(huì)進(jìn)行4次、累計(jì)100個(gè)基點(diǎn)的加息，但由于懷疑美國經(jīng)濟(jì)承受緊縮后貨幣政策以及國外潛在動(dòng)蕩局勢的能力，市場計(jì)入更為漸進(jìn)的緊縮進(jìn)程。
Chinese officials have acknowledged Fed rises would increase pressure on the renminbi and contribute to outward flows of capital, an outlook shared by many other developing economies. The European Central Bank’s chief economist, meanwhile, told the FT his institution stood ready to respond if the Fed’s actions increase global borrowing costs.
中國官員承認(rèn)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息將會(huì)讓人民幣承壓，加劇資本外流，其他許多發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體也有同樣預(yù)期。與此同時(shí)，歐洲央行(ECB)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家向英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示，如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息增加了全球借貸成本，歐洲央行準(zhǔn)備做出回應(yīng)。
The Fed has gone to great lengths to prepare the markets for a quarter-point rise at this week’s meeting — a move expected by all but one of the economists surveyed. But there is no such consensus over how high interest rates will ultimately go.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)竭力讓市場為本周會(huì)議加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)做好準(zhǔn)備——受訪經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)缀跞碱A(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)本次將加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，只有一人例外。但關(guān)于最終加息到多高的利率，各方?jīng)]有這樣的共識(shí)。
Among those polled, 24 per cent expected two rises next year of 25 basis points each, 39 per cent expected three rises and 30 per cent forecast four rises. Overall, the median projection in the FT poll is for the Fed to lift rates by 75 basis points in 2016 and a further 100 in 2017.
受訪經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家中，24%預(yù)計(jì)明年加息兩次，每次25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，39%預(yù)計(jì)加息3次，30%預(yù)計(jì)加息4次。整體而言，英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》調(diào)查的預(yù)測中值是，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在2016年加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)，在2017年還會(huì)加息100個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
On the margins, two economists expect the Fed to lift its benchmark rate by as many as 300 basis points over the next two years. One cautions the central bank may only increase rates once more after December — by just 25 basis points — over the next 24 months.
比較極端的是，有兩位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在今后兩年加息300個(gè)基點(diǎn)。還有一位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家告誡稱，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能在12月以后的24個(gè)月里只會(huì)加息一次，而且僅僅加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
Fed chair Janet Yellen has suggested that moves will be gradual, but it is not clear whether there will be formal guidance to that effect in the Fed statement.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)暗示，加息將是漸進(jìn)式的，但尚不清楚美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的聲明會(huì)不會(huì)就這一點(diǎn)提供正式指引。
Several economists warned the Fed’s ability to increase rates would be constrained by the effect of a slowdown and dollar appreciation against other currencies. Overall, they put the odds of a technical recession in the next two years at roughly 15 per cent and the probability that the Fed would have to cut rates back to zero at 20 per cent.
數(shù)位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告稱，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息能力將受到經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和美元兌其他貨幣升值影響的限制。整體而言，他們認(rèn)為今后兩年發(fā)生技術(shù)性衰退的幾率大約為15%，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不得不重新降息至零的可能性是20%。
