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Rising wages in the coming years are expected to drive manufacturers away 什om low-value-added sectors, while rising consumption by better-paid Chinese workers will play a bigger role in propelling5 the domestic economy.
預計未來幾年里，一方面不斷上漲的工資將迫使制造商退出低附加值行業;另 一方面,中國工人在加薪后將擴大消費，在推動國內經濟方面發揮更大的作用。
Morgan Stanley has projected that Chinese labour’s share of gross domestic product would rise from its current level of 15 per cent to at least 30 per cent by 2020, reversing the trend of the past decade, in which wage growth has trailed economic expansion.
摩根士丹利預計,到2020年,中國勞動力占國內生產總值的比重，將從目前的 15%上升到至少30%.,扭轉過去十年里工資增長落后于經濟增長的趨勢。
“If wages rise, then the household share of national income must rise. That would be a very beneficial process and that would aid the economic rebalancing,w explains Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, an independent research and advisory firm.
“如果工資上漲,那么國民收入中家庭所占的比重肯定也會上升。這將是一個 非常有益的過程,有助于經濟恢復平衡”,獨立研究咨詢機構龍州經訊的董事總經 理葛藝豪解釋道。
Yet some economists fret that tightening labour supplies will lead to slower growth and higher inflation.
但一些經濟學家擔心，勞動力供應趨緊將導致經濟增長減速和通脹抬頭。
Mr Jiang estimates that a 5 per cent reduction in the size of China’s unskilled labour force could result in a 2 per cent slowdown in GDP.
蔣庭松估計，中國非熟練勞動力數量若減少5%，可能會造成GDP增速減少兩 個百分點。
In China’s labour headaches, some Indians see opportunity. The UN estimates that India’s population will rise by 26 per cent from 1.2bn in 2010 to 1.5bn in 2035，while its labour force will rise by 33 per cent to nearly 1bn.
一些印度人從中國的勞動力困局中看到了機會。聯合國估計,到2035年，印度 人口將較2010年增長26%，從12億人增至15億人;同期勞動力數量將增長33%，達到 近10f乙人。
By then, Indians of working age 15 to 59 will account for about 65 per cent of the population, making India the world’s largest labour market.
屆時，處在工作年齡段(15歲至59歲）的印度人將占到該國總人口的65%左右， 令該國成為全球最大的勞動力市場。
Goldman Sachs says that India’s labour force will grow by 110m people over the next 10 years, the largest addition to the global labour force, which could potentially add 4 percentage points to GDP growth over the next decade.
髙盛表示，未來十年印度的勞動力數量將增加1.1億人,成為對全球勞動力數 量增長貢獻最大的國家;未來十年印度的GDP增速可能由此增加四個百分點。
But what worries many Indian business executives, economists and policymakers is whether the country’s economy can absorb the masses of aspiring workers, mainly from poor rural areas and with tittle or no training. While nearly 13m young Indians are entering the workforce every year, India’s vocational training system has the capacity to train just 3.1m a year. Many young people lack even rudimentary skills.
但令許多印度商界高管、經濟學家和政策制定者擔心的是，印度經濟是否能夠消化如此眾多渴望成功的工人——這些工人主要來自貧窮的鄉下，很少或根本沒 有受過培訓。印度每年有近1300萬年輕人加人勞動力大軍，但該國的職業培訓體系 每年只能培訓310萬人。許多印度年輕人甚至缺乏最基本的技能。
“We do not have people who are actually functionally literate,” says Mr Bhandari. “Most of our labour force is inappropriate for the mass manufacturing practices that China has excelled at.”
班達里表示：“我們沒有多少真正受過足夠多教育的人。我們的勞動力大多不 適合從事中國人擅長的大規模制造業工作。”
