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耶倫再度釋放加息信號(hào) Yellen signals US economy is strong enough for a rate rise

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The US economy had “recovered substantially” from the post-crisis recession and was set for further growth and firmer inflation, Janet Yellen said, as she laid the groundwork for the first upward move in official interest rates since 2006.

珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)稱(chēng),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)從后危機(jī)時(shí)代的衰退“大幅復(fù)蘇”,并正在趨向進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)和更堅(jiān)實(shí)的通脹。她為自2006年以來(lái)首次上調(diào)官方利率鋪平了道路。

A rate rise would testify to the progress the US has made in shrugging off the legacy of the crash, the Fed chair said, adding there were risks in waiting too long to start normalising policy.

這位美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)主席稱(chēng),加息將證明美國(guó)在擺脫金融危機(jī)遺留問(wèn)題上取得的進(jìn)展,她補(bǔ)充稱(chēng),等待太久才啟動(dòng)政策正常化是有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。

Dangers from abroad had also diminished since September, when the Fed held fire on rates citing risks from China and financial markets.

自9月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)因中國(guó)及金融市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而維持利率不變以來(lái),海外風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也已經(jīng)降低。

An upward move widely expected on December 16 at the Fed’s next meeting would put the US on a sharply divergent course from many other advanced nations. In the euro area, the European Central Bank is expected to loosen policy today as it attempts to lift inflation and nurture the region’s recovery.

人們普遍預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在12月16日下次會(huì)議上宣布的加息,將使美國(guó)走上與其他很多發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家截然不同的道路。在歐元區(qū),為了推升通脹,扶持該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,歐洲央行(ECB)今日預(yù)計(jì)將放松政策。

The ECB is likely to extend and expand its programme of quantitative easing, and could make a further cut to its deposit rate. However, German-led opposition within the bank could limit the extent of further action, potentially disappointing markets.

歐洲央行很可能會(huì)延長(zhǎng)并擴(kuò)大其量化寬松計(jì)劃,并可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步下調(diào)存款利率。然而,歐洲央行內(nèi)部以德國(guó)為首的反對(duì)方可能會(huì)限制進(jìn)一步舉措的力度,這可能會(huì)令市場(chǎng)失望。

Alluding to the key test the Fed has set before tightening monetary policy, Ms Yellen said her confidence in the inflation outlook had been “bolstered” by recent strength in the jobs market, adding that there had been welcome signs of a pick-up in wage growth.

耶倫提及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)設(shè)定的在收緊貨幣政策前的關(guān)鍵測(cè)試,稱(chēng)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)近期的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)“支撐”了她對(duì)通脹前景的信心,并補(bǔ)充稱(chēng),工資增長(zhǎng)也出現(xiàn)了可喜的上升跡象。

The Federal Open Market Committee gathers in two weeks’ time for a much anticipated rate-setting meeting, with financial markets now primed for a possible increase in official short-term interest rates from current near-zero levels. In its last statement, the central bank formally put the world on notice that a move was possible in December.

聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(FOMC)兩周后將召開(kāi)萬(wàn)眾期待的利率制定會(huì)議,金融市場(chǎng)眼下已經(jīng)為官方短期利率可能從目前接近于零的水平有所上調(diào)做好了準(zhǔn)備。在該委員會(huì)上次聲明中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正式提醒了全世界其可能在12月加息。

“The US economy has recovered substantially since the Great Recession,” said Ms Yellen in Washington yesterday.

“自大衰退以來(lái),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)大幅復(fù)蘇,”耶倫昨天在華盛頓表示。

Even if the Fed raises rates, Ms Yellen has been at pains to stress that increases will be incremental. In her speech she said the Fed would be cautious in tightening policy because the interest rate compatible with stable economic conditions remains historically low and may rise only gradually.

即使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上調(diào)利率,耶倫也在極力強(qiáng)調(diào)加息將會(huì)是漸進(jìn)的。她在講話中稱(chēng),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)謹(jǐn)慎地收緊政策,因?yàn)榕c穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況相符的利率水平仍然處于歷史低位,只能逐漸上調(diào)。

The Fed’s last set of projections suggested increases at a pace of about 100 basis points a year in 2016 and 2017, which would still be quicker than the speed forecast by financial markets.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上一次預(yù)測(cè)似乎表明,2016年和2017年將以每年100個(gè)基點(diǎn)左右的幅度加息,這仍然快于金融市場(chǎng)的預(yù)期。

Ms Yellen said the US economy was still not at full employment in her view — a verdict that contrasts with that of some of her more bullish colleagues.

耶倫稱(chēng),在她看來(lái)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然沒(méi)有實(shí)現(xiàn)充分就業(yè)——這與她的一些更為樂(lè)觀的同事的結(jié)論形成對(duì)比。

But she warned that if the Fed waits too long to move it could end up getting behind the curve and then being forced to rise sharply. “Holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability,” she added.

但是她警告稱(chēng),如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為加息等待太久,就有可能落后于曲線、然后被迫大幅加息。“將聯(lián)邦利率保持在現(xiàn)有水平上太久,還可能會(huì)鼓勵(lì)過(guò)度冒險(xiǎn),從而破壞金融穩(wěn)定,”她補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)。

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stable ['steibl]

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adj. 穩(wěn)定的,安定的,可靠的
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disappointing [.disə'pɔintiŋ]

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funds

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loosen ['lu:sn]

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