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Turmoil in Egypt spooked oil traders last month, threatening to close the Suez Canal. Now Libya, which accounts for about 2 percent of global production，seems on the brink of civil war, creating further disquiet. With prices above $100 a barrel, the world must prepare for further oil price volatility and the threat of a genuine crisis if production is disrupted in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere.
上個月埃及的動蕩令蘇伊士運河面臨被關閉的風險，這讓石油交易員們驚慌。現在，占全球石油產量約2%的利比亞似乎也處在內戰邊緣，進一步加劇了恐慌。隨著油價突破每桶100美元,世界必須對油價的進一步波動做好準備,如果沙特阿拉 伯或其它國家的石油生產中斷，世界有可能陷人一場真正的危機。
The situation has sent activists and politicians scrambling for their usual answers. Some call for more domestic production; others urge alternatives to oil. But neither will make much difference. Alternatives have potential, but will take decades to arrive at scale. Expanding domestic production is even less promising: new supplies don’t insulate consumers from big changes in world prices, and increase output only slowly. Both are worthy, but we need a plan plans for shortterm crisis management too.
這一形勢促使政治活動家和政客們匆忙翻出自己的老一套說辭。一些人呼吁 擴大本土石油生產,還有人主張發展石油替代品，但兩種辦法都不會有太大效果。 替代品的確有潛力可挖,但需要數十年時間才能達到有意義的規模。擴大本土石油 生產更加沒有指望:新增供應不會讓消費者免受全球油價大輻波動的影響，而增加 產出也只會是一個緩慢的過程。兩種辦法都值得考慮,但我們還需要一個短期危機 管理計劃。
Such plans must begin with a coherent approach to strategic petroleum reserves. These can be used as a buffer against global disruptions, meaning that if supply drops, or transit routes are disrupted, stocks are released to calm world markets. The problem is, it is unclear which circumstances justify their use. The current situation does not merit it, the head of the International Energy Agency (!EA) reassured markets they could be used, if needed. If unrest spread to Saudi Arabia a release would make sense, but policy is muddled on more moderate disruptions.
此類計劃的著眼點,必須是對戰略石油儲備采取協調做法。這些儲備可以起到 抵御全球市場動蕩的緩沖器的作用，這意味著，如果石油供應減少，或運輸路線中 斷,就動用儲備以穩定全球市場。但問題在于，人們仍不清楚在哪些情況下可以動用這些儲備。當前形勢還沒走到這一步，而國際能源機構負責人向市場保證，必要 時可以動用儲備。如果動亂蔓延至沙特阿拉伯，釋放儲備無可非議，但對于影響不 那么嚴重的擾亂’政策就有些模糊。
Curtailing Saudi production, in particular, would be a huge shock to markets. The probability of such contagion is very small, but even these limited odds matter when the consequences are grave. With neighbouring Bahrain still roiling, the chances of unrest spreading to the desert kingdom have increased. But what if a production shut down in Libya was followed by Algeria, which produces about 2m barrels a day? The IEA must decide what its breaking point will be, to deter preemptive market panic.
沙特阿拉伯產量下降,對市場的沖擊會尤其嚴重。該國被卷入動蕩的可能性非 常低，但考慮到后果的嚴重性，即使概率很低也不應被忽視。由于鄰國巴林仍處于 混亂,不安定局面蔓延至沙特阿拉伯的可能性有所增加。但如果日產量約200萬桶 的阿爾及利亞繼利比亞之后也停產怎么辦？ IEA必須劃定行動底線，以阻止市場先 行恐慌。
New approaches to oil market speculation are also needed. The G20 is currently overhauling rules in response to the 2008 oil price spike, which saw prices rise to $147 a barrel. However this was driven by economic factors not a geopolitical shock. The response has, understandably, focused on how to deal most effectively with similar circumstances in the future.
還有必要對石油市場的投機活動采取新手段。2008年油價飆升至每桶147美 元,促使G20正徹底修改相關規則。不過，當時油價飆升是由經濟因素推動的,而不 是地緣政治沖擊。可以理解的是，回應也聚焦于如何最有效地應對未來的類似情
The type of speculation that would follow disruptions in Saudi Arabia or Iran, however, could be different. In such cases speculators would be responding to hard-to-anticipate political changes, rather than steady economic developments. Their moves could therefore add to volatility, as panicked traders hoard oil as an insurance policy. It would be wise to consider and prepare for exceptional new restrictions on speculation during such moments of extraordinary geopolitical stress.
不過,一旦沙特阿拉伯或伊朗的石油供應中斷，可能會引發不同類型的投機活 動。在這種情況下，投機者將對趣以預料的政治變化做出反應，而不是穩定的經濟 發展。隨著驚慌的交易員囤積石油，作為保險措施，波動可能會進一步加劇。在地緣 政治壓力異常大的時期，考慮并準備投機活動出臺新的特別限制，將是明智之舉。
None of these measures replaces the need for a long-term transformation in the global energy economy. But such broader thinking must not crowd-out shortterm measures to cope with present problems. We don’t know how our newly globalised economy will respond to a sharp geopolitical oil price shock. But we should prepare, before we find out the hard way.
這些措施都無法取代全球能源經濟長期轉型的必要性。但即便有這些更加全 局性的想法，也不應忽視應對當前問題的短期措施。我們不知道，剛剛全球化的經 濟將如何應對一場猛烈的地理政治油價危機。但我們應該在付出沉重代價才找到 答案之前做好準備。
