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5. 購買長期債券
A surprising number of people still subscribe to the flawed and circular argument that bonds, including long-term government bonds, are 'safe.' In reality, bonds─especially long-term government bonds─are the rare example of a bubble that has been explicitly declared.
令人吃驚的人，仍有很多人接受這樣的觀點：包括長期政府債券在內的債券是“安全的”。實際上，債券──特別是長期政府債券──是少有的一種已經被明確宣告的泡沫。
The Fed is openly printing money and using it to buy up such bonds, driving up the price and driving down the interest rates, in order to help the economy. There is no dispute about this. It's public policy.
美聯儲在毫不掩飾地大肆印著鈔票，并用這些印出來的鈔票買國債，從而抬高這類債券的價格，壓低利率，以便能夠幫助提振美國經濟。這一點毫無爭議。這是公開的政策。
A 30-year Treasury bond currently sports an interest rate of just 3.1%. That's barely half a percentage point above long-term inflation forecasts. Based on history, the yield should be at least 4.5%, or two percentage points above inflation.
30年期美國國債目前的收益率僅為3.1%。這比長期通貨膨脹預期僅高出半個百分點。如果以過往的標準來衡量，30年期國債的收益率應該至少達到4.5%，比通貨膨脹率高出兩個百分點。
Thirty-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, sport a 'real' or inflation-adjusted yield of 0.6% a year. Again, it should be 2%.
30年期通脹掛鉤國債的“實際”年收益率，即扣除通貨膨脹因素后的收益率，為0.6%。而以過往的標準來衡量，這一收益率應當是2%。
The only reason to buy such bonds in any quantity is to gamble on a 1930s-style depression and world-wide deflation. Such bonds are a gamble, not a safe haven.
購買這類債券的唯一理由只能是押注經濟會重現上世紀30年代那樣的大蕭條，而且會出現全球性的通貨緊縮。投資這類債券是在賭博，不是避險。
