
Citic Pacific’s Sino Iron venture will live for ever – as a textbook study of inexperienced management meeting Murphy’s law. The project, in Australia’s Pilbara region, has already exceeded its budget five times over. It is finally shipping ore, admittedly, and is setting a new standard of openness for Chinese state-owned groups by talking about what went wrong. But when $10bn has been sunk into a very big hole, perseverance and openness are not so much virtues as necessities.
中信泰富(Citic Pacific)的中澳鐵礦項(xiàng)目(Sino Iron),將成為經(jīng)驗(yàn)不足的管理層遭遇“墨菲定律”(任何有可能發(fā)生的壞事,總會(huì)發(fā)生——譯者注)的一個(gè)經(jīng)典案例。該項(xiàng)目位于澳大利亞皮爾巴拉(Pilbara)地區(qū),目前其實(shí)際投資已經(jīng)超出預(yù)算的5倍。誠(chéng)然,該項(xiàng)目終于開(kāi)始產(chǎn)礦了,而且管理層也開(kāi)始檢討問(wèn)題所在,在透明度上為中國(guó)國(guó)有企業(yè)罕見(jiàn)。但是,當(dāng)100億美元被扔進(jìn)無(wú)底洞的時(shí)候,堅(jiān)持和透明就是次要問(wèn)題了。
The chairman’s statement, part of its full-year results, was refreshing. Too many SoEs seem to run corporate buzzwords through Google Translate and rearrange them. A chairman who admits more hands-on management was needed is a novelty, though cynics might read that as a promise never to invest alongside fellow-SoE China Metallurgical Group (MCC) again. MCC’s initial plan to import cheap Chinese labour into the Pilbara, for example, never stood a chance. The risk management issue will stir up bad memories for investors who remember the 50 per cent share slide that followed Citic Pacific’s $2bn currency hedge loss in 2008.
作為其全年業(yè)績(jī)報(bào)告的一部分,中信泰富董事長(zhǎng)的聲明令人耳目一新。太多中國(guó)國(guó)企在發(fā)布聲明時(shí),似乎只是通過(guò)谷歌翻譯(Google Translate)找上些行業(yè)流行詞,然后重新組織一下就算完事。而中信泰富董事長(zhǎng)承認(rèn)需要更加“親力親為”的管理,這令人感到新奇。不過(guò)懷疑人士也可能將此解讀為,中信泰富永遠(yuǎn)不想再和這個(gè)項(xiàng)目中的合作方——中冶集團(tuán)(China Metallurgical Group)合作投資了。中冶最初計(jì)劃將中國(guó)廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力輸入皮爾巴拉地區(qū),現(xiàn)在看來(lái)完全做不到。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問(wèn)題始終是中信泰富投資者揮不去的痛:2008年,由于在匯率對(duì)沖操作中損失20億美元,該公司股價(jià)曾下跌50%。
Sino Iron makes up less than a third of Citic Pacific’s assets, which include property, telecoms and steel, but it is the top priority for the management team, according to its chairman. Production this year could top 3m tonnes. To reach its 24m full capacity, more investment is needed. But Citic Pacific will not say how much or when, nor will it lay out production costs. Refining low-grade magnetite into ore on this scale admittedly faces unique challenges. Any figure is hostage to factors ranging from ore prices and labour costs to the outcome of a bitter court battle over royalties. But investors still deserve to know what rate of return the company expects. Or is this a hole so deep the only option is to keep digging regardless?
中信泰富的資產(chǎn)包括房地產(chǎn)、電信和鋼鐵。盡管中澳鐵礦項(xiàng)目在其中占比不足三分之一,但據(jù)其董事長(zhǎng)所言,該項(xiàng)目是管理團(tuán)隊(duì)的第一要?jiǎng)?wù)。今年,該項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)量最高可能達(dá)到300萬(wàn)噸。要實(shí)現(xiàn)其2400萬(wàn)噸的全部產(chǎn)能,還需要加大投資。但中信泰富不會(huì)透露增資多少或者何時(shí)增資,也不會(huì)透露生產(chǎn)成本。在當(dāng)前產(chǎn)能下,將低品級(jí)磁鐵礦精煉出礦石,可謂不小的挑戰(zhàn)。公司業(yè)績(jī)還受到各種因素的影響,從鐵礦石價(jià)格和勞動(dòng)力成本,到圍繞使用權(quán)費(fèi)的棘手的法律訴訟。但投資者迫切想知道,該公司預(yù)期的回報(bào)率是多少。或者說(shuō)這個(gè)洞已經(jīng)太深了,唯一的選擇是,不管怎樣也要繼續(xù)挖下去?