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跨國婚姻大勢所趨:德國先生娶法國太太,英美小姐嫁西班牙丈夫

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The Mamma Mia factor
The rate seems to be rising fastest in Mediterranean countries: in Spain and Italy, cross-border marriages accounted for less than 5% of the total in 1995; by 2009, the share had reached 14% in Italy and 22% in Spain. Cyprus is a special case: no less than three-quarters of marriages there in 2009 were international (up from half in 1995). But that is because Venus’s birthplace has a thriving wedding-and-honeymoon market. Many couples from abroad wed there.
在地中海國家中,這個比例似乎是增長最快的:在西班牙和意大利,1995年跨國婚姻只占總數(shù)的5%,到了2009年,意大利這個比例上升到14%,而西班牙則上升到22%。塞浦路斯則是個特殊的個案:2009年至少四分之三的婚姻都是跨國組合(1995年的數(shù)字是二分之一)。其原因是誕生了維納斯的地方也滋生了一個蓬勃發(fā)展的舉行婚禮和度蜜月目的地的甜蜜市場。許多別國的情侶會在那登記結(jié)婚。
Such figures are based on wedding records. Another way of getting at the trends is census micro-data (ie, from detailed samples collected as part of the census). These have a wider coverage, are extremely precise, and go back decades, which is helpful. On the other hand, many countries do not provide them. Researchers from the Centre for Demographic Studies (Barcelona) and the Minnesota Population Centre have for the first time trawled through the censuses of more than 50 countries in every continent for people aged 25-39. In general, they find that cross-border marriages are rising in most places, but the most significant fact is the big difference between levels in rich and developing ones.
一些數(shù)據(jù)是基于婚禮記錄。另一個搞清楚這個趨勢的方法是靠人口普查的微觀數(shù)據(jù)(即收集的部分人口普查的有具體細(xì)節(jié)的樣本)。這些的覆蓋面更廣,非常精確,并且能得到有用的歷史數(shù)據(jù)。另一方面,很多國家不提供這樣的信息。位于巴塞羅那的人口研究中心以及明尼蘇達(dá)州人口中心的研究員們第一次查閱了所有大洲五十多個國家的處于25到39的人口普查數(shù)據(jù)。大體上,他們發(fā)現(xiàn)跨國婚姻現(xiàn)象在很多地方都持續(xù)上升,但是最有意義的發(fā)現(xiàn)是發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家之間的水平上的巨大差距。
In most developing countries, the share of men married to foreign women was less than 2% in 2000 (0.7% in Ghana and Bolivia; 0.2% in Colombia and the Philippines; 3.3% in South Africa). In contrast, three rich countries—America, Britain and France—account for half the total in the sample. America alone has a third. Because it is so large, though, the share of international marriage remains low: only 4.6% of Americans were married to a foreigner in 2010, up from 2.4% in 1970.
在大多數(shù)發(fā)展中國家,2000年時,本國男子與外國籍女子結(jié)婚的概率還低于2%(加納0.7%;玻利維亞0.7;哥倫比亞0.2%;菲律賓0.2%;南非0.2%)。對比之下,三個發(fā)達(dá)國家—美國、英國、法國,樣本中一半的跨國婚姻都來自于這三個國家。僅美國就占據(jù)樣本中的三分之一。但是人口太多的原因,致使跨國婚姻的比例仍然很低:2010只有4.6%的美國人選擇了跨國婚姻,1970年這個數(shù)據(jù)是2.4%。
Albert Esteve of the Autonomous University of Barcelona reckons that the total number of cross-border marriages among 25-39-year-olds in his sample was about 12m in 2000. The sample excludes several countries with large numbers of such unions—Japan, Taiwan, Australia and Canada—so the grand total is certainly higher, probably 15m, possibly more. Compared with the very roughly 500m marriages within that age group round the world, 15m may not seem like much. But it is more than it used to be and, in some countries—senders and recipients of foreign spouses alike—the growth in cross-border marriages is having a significant social impact.
巴塞羅那自治大學(xué)的Albert Esteve認(rèn)為在他選擇的樣本中25到39的跨國婚姻的總數(shù)2000年大約是一千二百萬。這個樣本除去了日本、臺灣、澳大利亞、加拿大的龐大數(shù)據(jù),那么真正的總數(shù)必然更高,也許有一千五百萬,更多也有可能。與這個世界上該年齡組五億的夫婦相比,一千五百萬似乎并不多。但是比以前多了很多,并且在一些國家婚嫁往來的增多正在深刻影響著社會。
Everywhere, cross-border marriage rises with migration, but more slowly. According to Mr Esteve’s figures, the correlation is roughly one international marriage for every two new migrants. That would seem to mean that half of new migrants are marrying into their host society and the other half (presumably) into their own communities. So a surge in immigration usually leads to only a more modest rise in cross-border marriages; the process is slower and more complex.
每時每處,跨國婚姻都隨著移民的增加而增加,但是比移民增長速度慢。根據(jù)Esteve先生的數(shù)據(jù),這之間的關(guān)聯(lián)大約是每兩個新移民中有一個會選擇跨國婚姻。這似乎意味著一半的新移民都融入了所在移民國,另一半留在了自己的原來的集體中。所以移民潮通常導(dǎo)致的只是跨國婚姻的更平穩(wěn)的增長;這個融入的進(jìn)程更慢也更復(fù)雜。
Research into four European countries by Suzana Koelet of the Free University of Brussels and others confirms that international marriages have not risen as much as one might have expected in Europe. On her calculations, rates of marriages with a person from another European Union country have been flat in Belgium and the Netherlands since 2000 and shown only a modest rise in Spain. Marriage rates between Swiss and EU citizens have also not budged. True, marriages with foreigners have increased sharply in Spain—but that was because of a spurt of marriages with non-EU citizens: Spain had huge immigration flows from Latin America during the 1990s and 2000s. By implication, the closer integration that the EU is supposed to be bringing about seems to be having no discernible impact on the marriage choices of Dutch, Belgian and Spanish citizens.
布魯塞爾自由大學(xué)的Suzana Koelet等人對歐洲四國的研究結(jié)果證實國際婚姻在歐洲的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r并不是大家想象中的一夜暴漲,朝夕之間增長至此。根據(jù)她其他的計算結(jié)果,在比利時和荷蘭,婚姻中一方來自歐盟其他成員國的增長情況并不景氣,而在西班牙只呈現(xiàn)小幅整張。瑞士人和歐盟公民的結(jié)婚幾率也并未改變。在西班牙,跨國婚姻雖然大幅增長,但是卻不是歐盟成員國公民的功勞:上世紀(jì)末和這個世紀(jì)初,1990到2010年間,規(guī)模浩大的的拉美移民潮涌入西班牙。這才是真正的原因。這意味著,加入歐盟而帶來的進(jìn)一步社會融合似乎對荷蘭、比利時和西班牙的婚姻選擇沒有明顯的影響。
Why not? For part of the explanation, Ms Koelet points to the intriguing marriage patterns of the Swiss. The country has one of the highest rates of international marriage in the world (surpassed only by Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and Cyprus). But the Swiss “marry out” in particular ways. The German-speaking Swiss marry largely neighbouring Germans; the Francophone Swiss marry the French; Italian-speakers marry Italians.It is the same with Belgians: Flemish-speakers tend to marry Dutch partners, Walloons marry French people. Language, it appears, remains a persistent barrier to international marriage in Europe and the spread of English as a second language does not seem to have changed that.
到底是衛(wèi)生什么呢?Ms Koelet做出了部分解釋,指出瑞士的婚姻模式的特別之處。瑞士是世界上跨國婚姻率最高的國家之一(只低于列支敦士登、盧森堡、塞浦路斯)。但是這高的跨國婚姻率的原因卻特別。說德語的瑞士人大部分和鄰近的德國人結(jié)婚,說法語的瑞士人和法國人結(jié)婚說意大利語的和意大利人結(jié)婚。比利時的情況亦然:說弗林明語(荷蘭方言的一種)的和荷蘭人結(jié)婚,Walloons marry French people.在歐洲,語言似乎永遠(yuǎn)都是跨國婚姻的障礙,即使將英語作為第二語言傳播,也沒有改變這個現(xiàn)狀。
Asia is different. In Europe and America, marriage tends to follow migration. In Asia, people marry to migrate. Marriages in South Korea, for example, are often arranged by a broker in an unromantic process that takes two or three days and costs the Korean groom $20,000-30,000. Similarly, Taiwan has many marriages between its male citizens and Vietnamese women. The growth began when Taiwanese companies started investing in Vietnam
異于歐洲和美洲,歐美地區(qū)的跨國婚姻是伴隨移民而生,而亞洲,人們確是為了移民而選擇跨國婚姻。拿韓國舉例,婚姻經(jīng)常由一個中間人導(dǎo)演,在兩三天的時間內(nèi)結(jié)束,新郎花費(fèi)兩三萬美元,毫無愛情相遇這些浪漫的過程。無獨(dú)有偶,在臺灣,男子和越南女子的婚姻也是這樣。這個增長始于臺灣企業(yè)開始在越南投資。
Local men in such countries, Mr Jones argues from Singapore, look for foreign brides for two reasons. First because of the so-called “marriage strike” affecting some East Asian societies. In the richer countries of East and South-East Asia, like Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, a third or more of local women are not marrying; and those who do wed late, at 31 or 32. This is causing some men to look to foreign shores for potential mates. The other reason—specific to a few Asian societies—is because a combination of traditional preference for sons and the availability of sex-selective abortion skewed the sex ratio at birth 20 years ago, leaving too few native-born women now. South Korea is an example. In 1990, it had 117 boys born for every 100 girls. Men are looking abroad to plug the gap in their local marriage market.
Mr Jones說,證據(jù)表明在這樣的國家和地區(qū),當(dāng)?shù)氐哪凶尤⑼獾氐男履铮鲇趦蓚€原因。首先是因為我們稱之為“新娘罷工”的現(xiàn)象襲擊著東亞社會。東亞和東南亞的富裕國家和地區(qū),例如日本、新加坡、韓國、臺灣,當(dāng)?shù)厝种灰陨系倪m婚年齡的女子不結(jié)婚,或晚結(jié)婚31歲或32歲。這就導(dǎo)致了一些男士將目光投向海外,尋找合適的可能的伴侶。另一個原因是,在個別少數(shù)亞洲的國家,傳統(tǒng)上的重男輕女加之20年前,無限制的人工選擇性流產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致的出生性別比率傾斜而致使現(xiàn)在本國婚育年齡女子太少。例如韓國,1990年時,出生時男女比例為117比100.為了堵當(dāng)?shù)鼗橐鍪袌龅目吡腥藗冎荒苻D(zhuǎn)向海外。
For their part, the young women, often from poor areas of China and Vietnam, are looking for economic opportunities. Marriage with a man from a richer country is seen as a means of advancement and a way of helping their families at home. In Asia, it seems, cross-border unions are products of distorted local marriage markets; in Europe, they are results of gaps in labour markets that encourage migration. In both parts of the world, diasporas play a role: as immigrants settle down they encourage friends and family from back home to follow in their footsteps.
站在那些年輕女子的角度,她們多數(shù)來自中國和越南的貧困地區(qū),到富裕的地區(qū)尋找財富。她們把和當(dāng)?shù)氐哪凶咏Y(jié)婚視為自身發(fā)展的一種方式,幫助家鄉(xiāng)親人的一種方式。這樣看來,跨國婚姻在亞洲是當(dāng)?shù)夭黄胶獾幕橐鍪袌龅漠a(chǎn)物,而在歐洲則源于勞動力市場的短缺而發(fā)展壯大的移民潮。在這兩大地區(qū)亞洲和歐美,大規(guī)模的移民潮都起著一定作用:一些已經(jīng)定居的移民鼓勵著朋友和親人跟隨他們的腳步,離開家鄉(xiāng)去遠(yuǎn)方。
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distorted [dis'tɔ:tid]

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