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10Gambler’s Fallacy
The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a (fair) coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that theprobabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% (18 red spots divided by 38 total spots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many a gambler to lose money thinking theprobabilities have changed.
10賭徒的謬論
賭徒的謬論是指過去發生的事情會影響未來事件的發生，但是事實上，不是這樣的。舉個例子，當你投一枚正常的硬幣時，出現頭像的概率總是50%，這些固定的概率不會因為連續出現了10次背面而改變。認為這些會改變是一種常見的偏見，尤其是在賭博的時候。當我在玩賭博輪的時候，最后4個數字全是黑的，那么下次會是紅的？錯！出現紅的概率還是47.37％（18個紅區和38個黑區）。這個聽起來明顯，但是未來會改變的偏見已經讓很多賭徒輸錢了。
