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特朗普經濟政策長文詳解(下)

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Beyond the freer hand for big tech companies, Mr Trump will also preside over a reordering of the regulatory landscape.

除了給予大型科技公司更多自由外,特朗普還將主持進行監管格局的重新調整。

He has vowed to give energy companies more freedom to drill for oil on federal land and will probably lift a moratorium on the export of liquid natural gas.

他承諾要給予能源公司在聯邦土地上鉆探石油的更多自由,并且很可能會解除對液態天然氣出口的暫時禁令。

His second administration could also herald an easing of the onerous reporting requirements placed on banks after the global financial crisis of 2007-09.

他的第二個任期也可能預示著,2007-09年全球金融危機后對銀行實施的繁重報告要求將有所放松。

At the same time, Mr Trump may claw back some of the rules and subsidies drawn up by the Biden administration to encourage Americans to use renewable energy.

與此同時,特朗普可能會收回拜登政府為鼓勵美國人使用可再生能源而制定的一些規定和補貼。

Winners and losers in the stockmarket reflected this reshuffling.

股票市場的贏家和輸家反映了這種重新洗牌。

First Solar, America’s biggest manufacturer of solar panels, plunged by 10% the day after the election, while big banks such as Bank of America were the mirror image of that, climbing by 8%.

美國最大的太陽能電池板制造商第一太陽能公司在選舉后的第二天暴跌10%,而美國銀行等大銀行則與之相反,上漲了8%。

Tariffs will be Mr Trump’s most controversial set of policies, especially in foreign capital cities.

關稅將是特朗普最具爭議的政策,特別是在外國首都。

Central to his programme for nearly a decade has been a belief that protectionism is essential to American prosperity.

近十年來,他計劃的核心一直是這樣一種信念:保護主義對美國的繁榮至關重要。

His first term in the White House, which featured tariffs on steel from around the world and on a range of Chinese products, is probably just a prelude to what he will attempt now.

他在白宮的第一個任期以對世界各地的鋼鐵和一系列中國產品征收關稅為特點,這可能只是他現在試圖做的事情的前奏。

He has talked about slapping levies of 10-20% on everything that America imports, of 60% on all goods from China and even higher duties—perhaps 500%—on cars from Mexico.

他曾談到對美國進口的所有商品征收10%至20%的關稅,對來自中國的所有商品征收60%的關稅,甚至對來自墨西哥的汽車征收更高的關稅——也許是500%。

Almost universally, economists say such hefty tariffs would lead to higher consumer prices and act as drags on investment and growth.

經濟學家幾乎一致表示,如此高額的關稅將導致消費者價格上漲,并對投資和經濟增長造成拖累。

That is a potentially cruel irony for American voters given that anger about inflation under Mr Biden helped fuel support for Mr Trump’s re-election.

這對美國選民來說可能是殘酷的諷刺,因為人們對拜登領導下通貨膨脹的憤怒推動了對特朗普再次當選的支持。

Many Republicans in Congress are also less enthusiastic about tariffs; a traditional free-trade strain remains alive, if hardly thriving, in the party.

國會中的許多共和黨人對關稅也不那么熱心,共和黨內仍然存在著一種傳統的自由貿易傾向,盡管這種傾向很難蓬勃起來。

But any opposition from them may not amount to much.

但他們的任何反對可能都不會有太大作用。

Mr Trump’s advisers, notably Robert Lighthizer, America’s trade representative in his first term, have been drawing up plans to use executive orders and hitherto untested emergency powers to impose across-the-board tariffs.

特朗普的顧問們,尤其是他第一任期內的美國貿易代表羅伯特·萊特希澤,一直在起草計劃,準備利用行政命令和迄今未經檢驗的緊急權力去全面征收關稅。

Whether those powers will actually function as they hope is unclear.

這些權力是否會如他們所希望的那樣發揮作用,目前還不清楚。

Companies are sure to challenge the tariffs in court and may succeed in overturning them.

企業肯定會在法庭上對關稅提出質疑,并可能成功推翻關稅。

So Mr Trump may start with smaller and more targeted tariffs before shooting for universal levies.

因此,特朗普可能會先從規模較小、針對性更強的關稅開始,然后再尋求全面征稅。

Tariffs are also sure to invite retaliation.

關稅也肯定會招致報復。

In Europe officials have already drawn up lists of levies that they may impose on American goods.

在歐洲,官員們已經擬定了他們可能對美國商品征收稅費的清單。

China will probably go after farm products, from soyabeans to corn.

中國可能會對從大豆到玉米的農產品下手。

Other countries will be tempted to follow suit but will also try to carve out exemptions from Mr Trump’s tariffs.

其他國家將想要效仿,但也會試圖從特朗普的關稅中爭取豁免。

That will be especially true for Canada and Mexico, whose fortunes are closely yoked to trade with America; the peso fell to a two-year low the day after the election, before regaining some lost ground, amid fears that Mr Trump’s tariffs could spell trouble for the Mexican economy.

加拿大和墨西哥尤其會這樣做,這兩國的命運與美國貿易緊密相連,由于擔心特朗普的關稅可能給墨西哥經濟帶來麻煩,墨西哥比索在選舉后的第二天跌至兩年來的最低點,隨后稍微回漲了一些。

Given the size and diversity of its economy, America may be better insulated than most from a global trade war—that, along with the higher Treasury yields, helps to account for the dollar’s rise after Mr Trump’s victory.

鑒于美國經濟的規模和多樣性,美國可能比大多數國家更能免受全球貿易戰的影響,這一點,加上美國國債收益率上升,有助于解釋特朗普獲勝后美元的上漲。

The very real danger for the world is weaker growth, higher prices and more brittle supply chains.

世界面臨的真正危險是增長乏力、物價上漲、供應鏈更加脆弱。

Mr Trump’s plan to “fix” America’s borders—a constant theme of his campaign—is another source of uncertainty.

特朗普計劃“修復”美國邊境(這是他競選活動的一個永恒主題),這也是另一個不確定性的來源。

If he keeps his promise of mass deportations, these would take a huge toll on the economy by shrinking the workforce.

如果他信守承諾,大規模驅逐移民,這將因為勞動力縮減而對經濟造成巨大損失。

Booting out 8m migrants would reduce America’s GDP by 7% versus baseline expectations by 2028, according to estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank.

據智庫“彼得森國際經濟研究所”,到2028年,驅逐800萬移民將使美國GDP比基線預期減少7%。

But the actual number is unlikely to come close to that.

但實際數字不太可能接近這個數。

Any attempt to deport millions will run into stiff resistance, with local officials in some of America’s biggest states, from California to New York, refusing to co-operate.

任何驅逐數百萬人的企圖都會遭到強烈抵制,從加利福尼亞到紐約,美國一些最大州的地方官員都將拒絕合作。

A more realistic outcome may thus be much stricter enforcement of border controls, which would stem the inflows of illegal migrants seen under Mr Biden.

一個更現實的結果可能是邊境管制將得到更嚴格的執行,這將阻止在拜登領導下出現的非法移民流入。

That in itself may translate into labour shortages for restaurants, construction companies and more, imparting yet another inflationary force.

這本身可能會轉化為餐館、建筑公司等行業的勞動力短缺,從而帶來又一股通脹力量。

How Mr Trump approaches legal immigration could make things worse—or better.

特朗普對待合法移民的方式可能會使情況變得更糟——或者更好。

In his first term he pared back green-card issuance, but in campaigning he has suggested that he might consider easing immigration rules for foreign students.

在他的第一個任期內,他削減了綠卡的發放,但在競選活動中,他表示可能會考慮放寬對外國學生的移民規定。

Given that America’s native-born workforce will shrink as the population ages, Mr Trump will face real economic pressure on this front.

鑒于美國本土出生的勞動力將隨著人口老齡化而萎縮,特朗普在這方面將面臨真正的經濟壓力。

“We do need immigration to hold up for potential economic growth to stay healthy,” says Satyam Panday of S&P Global, a credit-rating agency.

“我們確實需要移民來支撐潛在的經濟增長,以保持經濟狀況良好。”信用評級公司“標準普爾全球”的薩蒂亞姆·潘迪表示。

There are other threats, too.

還有其他威脅。

Worries about inflation are likely to weigh heavily in the Federal Reserve’s calculations.

對通貨膨脹的擔憂可能會在美聯儲的計算中占據重要地位。

The rise in Treasury yields shows that many investors believe the central bank will end up leaving interest rates higher next year than previously assumed—though they still expect a quarter-point cut at its meeting on November 7th, after we published this.

美國國債收益率的上升表明,許多投資者認為央行將使明年的利率保持在高于此前預期的水平——盡管在本文發布后,人們仍預計央行將在11月7日的會議上降息25個基點。

A more hawkish Fed may, in turn, invite the wrath of Mr Trump, who has insisted that, as president, he should have a say over interest rates.

更加強硬的美聯儲可能會繼而招致特朗普的憤怒,特朗普堅稱,作為總統,他應該對利率有發言權。

He will surely want to see steeper rate cuts now that he is in charge.

他上任后,肯定會希望看到更大幅度的降息。

Legally, he can do little to control the Fed, but his advisers have talked of creating a “shadow Fed” to try to steer its decisions.

從法律上講,他幾乎無法控制美聯儲,但他的顧問們已經在談論要創立一個“影子美聯儲”,從而控制美聯儲的決策。

The spectacle of the president attacking the central bank may spook markets but the Fed’s statutory independence should keep it well protected.

總統攻擊央行的奇觀可能會驚嚇到市場,但美聯儲的法定獨立性應該能使其得到很好的保護。

That Mr Trump may not be able to realise his most extreme ambitions should offer some solace to an anxious world.

特朗普可能無法實現其最極端的野心,這應該會給焦慮的世界帶來一些安慰。

But he will probably be able to push further in his second term than he did in his first.

但他可能會在第二個任期比第一個任期做出更大的行動。

He is better prepared for governing this time, with a larger team of loyalists and a more detailed plan of action.

這一次他為執政做了更好的準備,有了一個更龐大的忠誠者團隊和更詳細的行動計劃。

It is going to be a turbulent economic ride, for America and the world.

對美國和世界來說,接下來都將是一段動蕩的經濟旅程。

Buckle up.

請系好安全帶。

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n. 序幕,前奏,預兆
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potential [pə'tenʃəl]

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adj. 可能的,潛在的
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irony ['aiərəni]

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n. 反諷,諷剌,諷剌之事

 
deport [di'pɔ:t]

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