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Finance & economics
財經版塊
Donald Trump's economic agenda
特朗普的經濟政策
Taxes down, wars up
稅收降低，貿易戰打響
The return of Trumponomics excites markets but frightens the world.
特朗普經濟的回歸讓市場興奮，但讓世界恐懼。
The Trump trade is already in full swing.
特朗普貿易已經全面展開。
As it became clear that Donald Trump would win the presidential election, American stocks soared, the dollar strengthened and Treasury yields jumped higher.
隨著唐納德·特朗普將贏得總統大選的形勢變得明朗，美國股市飆升，美元走強，國債收益率跳漲。
The price movements contain two messages about the direction of Mr Trump’s economic policies.
價格走勢包含兩條有關特朗普經濟政策走向的信息。
The promise of big tax cuts, combined with his zeal for deregulation, will boost growth, especially in the short term.
第一是大幅減稅的承諾再加上他對放松監管的熱情將促進經濟增長，尤其是短期內的經濟。
But the spectre of tariffs and a crackdown on immigration may drive up inflation and, eventually, undercut America’s economic strengths.
第二是陰魂不散的關稅和對移民的打擊可能會推高通貨膨脹，最終削弱美國的經濟實力。
Gauging the potential impact of Mr Trump’s policies is, however, no easy task.
然而，衡量特朗普政策的潛在影響并非易事。
As ever with him, there is uncertainty about whether he means all that he says.
就像他以往一樣，他說的話是否都是真心的還不確定。
He is, for instance, obviously fond of tariffs but he may also, sometimes, treat them as leverage with other countries rather than as end goals.
例如，他顯然喜歡關稅，但有時他可能將關稅視為撬動其他國家的杠桿/影響其他國家的手段，而不是最終目標。
There is also uncertainty about how much he will be able to achieve.
對于他能取得多大成就也存在不確定性。
Mr Trump’s team has evolved from the chaos of his first term into what appears to be a more finely oiled operation.
特朗普的團隊經歷了他混亂的第一任期后，已經演變成一個似乎運轉更加良好的組織。
And Republicans are on track for a trifecta, as Mr Trump’s resounding victory is likely to come alongside a solid majority in the Senate and a narrower one in the House of Representatives.
而且共和黨人有望獲得三連勝，特朗普的壓倒性勝利很可能伴隨著共和黨在參議院的絕對多數席位，以及在眾議院的微弱多數席位。
Still, moderates in the party will have the clout to whittle down some of his agenda.
不過，共和黨內的溫和派會有牽制特朗普的影響力。
Mr Trump’s economic programme can be divided into three main categories: lower taxes, sweeping deregulation and higher tariffs.
特朗普的經濟計劃可以分為三個主要類別：降低稅收、全面放松監管、提高關稅。
He also has some broader policies—in particular, a looming crackdown on immigration—that could have a profound effect on the economy.
他還有一些更廣泛的政策——特別是即將對移民進行打擊——可能會對經濟產生深遠影響。
Start with the biggest source of immediate excitement for investors and company executives: the sugar rush of tax cuts and, just as importantly, an end to the spectre of tax increases.
首先是讓投資者和公司高管們立即興奮的最大來源：減稅帶來的甜蜜沖擊，以及同樣重要的：增稅恐慌的終結。
Kamala Harris had called for raising the corporate-tax rate from 21% to 28% and introducing a tax on unrealised capital gains.
卡瑪拉·哈里斯曾主張將公司稅率從21%提高到28%，并對未實現資本收益征稅。（注：未實現資本收益可簡單理解為某資產可以賣出去，但還沒賣出去的錢，此收益僅在賬面上體現。）
To the great relief of many on Wall Street, those proposals are now off the table.
令華爾街許多人大松了一口氣的是，這些提議現在已被棄置。
Instead, the Republican sweep could, in theory, open the door for Mr Trump to slash taxes.
相反，從理論上講，共和黨的大勝可能會為特朗普減稅打開大門。
His priority will be to extend the cuts in personal income tax he made in 2017, which are due to expire at the end of next year.
他的首要任務將是延長他在2017年實施的個人所得稅削減政策，該政策將于明年年底到期。
He has talked about reducing the corporate-tax rate, perhaps to 15%.
他已談到降低企業稅率，也許會降至15%。
And he has also floated a dizzying array of other possible cuts, including ending taxes on tips.
并且他還提出了一系列令人眼花繚亂的其他可能的削減措施，包括結束對小費征稅。
The prospect of higher after-tax earnings for companies helps explain why stocks surged when Mr Trump sealed his victory.
公司稅后收益提高的前景有助于解釋為什么特朗普獲勝時股市飆升。
The S&P 500 index of large American companies climbed by 2.5%, hitting a record high.
標準普爾500指數上漲了2.5%，創下歷史新高。
But giant tax cuts may not be a slam dunk.
但是大規模減稅可能并非穩贏。
The principal worry is that lower taxes will strain America’s finances.
主要的擔憂是降低稅收會使美國財政緊張。
As it stands, the Congressional Budget Office, an independent scorekeeper, estimates that America will run a budget deficit of about 6% of GDP over the next decade—exceptionally high for a normal peacetime economy.
目前，獨立統計機構“國會預算辦公室”估計，在未來十年內，美國將出現約占GDP6%的預算赤字，對于一個正常的和平時期經濟體來說，這是異常高的。
Mr Trump’s various tax cuts could swell the deficit to as much as 12% of GDP by 2035, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan group.
據無黨派組織“盡責聯邦預算委員會”，特朗普的各種減稅措施可能會使赤字到2035年膨脹到GDP的12%。
The danger of an exploding deficit may end up limiting how far Republicans in Congress go on tax cuts as negotiations start early next year.
隨著明年初稅收談判的開始，赤字爆炸的危險最終可能會限制國會中的共和黨人能減多少稅。
Much will also depend on how markets react: a rise in Treasury yields in response to Mr Trump’s triumph is already a warning about America’s fiscal frailty.
稅收很大程度上也取決于市場如何反應：特朗普勝利后美國國債收益率應聲上漲，這已經是對美國財政脆弱性的一個警告。
With their post-election surge, yields on ten-year Treasuries have now risen by four-fifths of a percentage point since mid-September, a big move for bond markets, reversing the decline seen after the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates.
隨著選舉后國債收益率激增，10年期國債收益率自9月中旬以來已經上升了五分之四個百分點，這對債券市場來說是一個很大的變動，扭轉了美聯儲開始降息后的下跌趨勢。
That could spell trouble for the stockmarket rally since it suggests that borrowing costs will be higher for longer.
這可能給股市回升帶來麻煩，因為這意味著借貸成本將在更長時間內保持高位。
Whereas tax negotiations will stretch though much of 2025, Mr Trump will get to work right away on deregulation when he returns to the White House.
雖然稅收談判將在2025年持續大半年時間，但特朗普返回白宮后將立即著手放松監管。
In his rallies he promised the “most aggressive regulatory reduction” in American history.
在競選集會上，他承諾要進行美國歷史上“最激進的監管削減”。
He may tap Elon Musk, the Tesla boss who became his chief campaigning sidekick, to lead a “government efficiency commission” that eliminates ten existing rules for every new one.
他可能會任命埃隆·馬斯克（這位特斯拉的老板是他的首席競選助手）領導“政府效率委員會”，對現有的十項規定廢舊立新。
But businesses are excited less by the razzle-dazzle of such a commission than by the coming U-turn on rules drawn up by Democrats.
但比起這樣一個花哨的委員會，企業對民主黨制定的規則即將出現180度大轉彎更感到興奮。
Ms Harris had been expected to continue efforts started by Joe Biden to impose stricter oversight on artificial intelligence (AI), including a requirement for companies to share information about their AI models.
哈里斯原本預計將繼續推進喬·拜登開啟的對人工智能實施更嚴格監督的工作，包括要求公司分享有關其AI模型的信息。
Mr Trump is expected to drop that.
特朗普預計會放棄這項工作。
Similarly, the Biden administration had made itself the nemesis of crypto companies with a barrage of disclosure and transparency rules (which it, reasonably, said were necessary to root out illegality).
同樣，拜登政府也通過一系列的披露和透明規則（拜登政府說這些規則是根除非法行為所必需的，這樣說有道理）使自己成為了加密貨幣公司的敵人。
Mr Trump will take a lighter touch; he has pledged to make America “the crypto capital of the planet”.
特朗普將采取更溫和的方式，他承諾要讓美國成為“全球加密貨幣之都”。
More generally, the antitrust crusade launched under Mr Biden, where bigness by itself seemed to paint a target on companies’ backs, is almost certain to be wound down.
更廣泛地說，拜登發起的反壟斷運動（只要公司規模大，就會成為靶子）幾乎肯定會逐漸終結。
“I think we’ve now seen peak techlash, and those waters are going to recede,” says Robert Atkinson of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a think-tank.
“我認為我們現在已經看到了科技打擊的高潮，而這些浪潮將會退去，”智囊團“信息技術與創新基金會”的羅伯特·阿特金森說，
“There’s simply no way that that’s going to happen under the Trump administration.
“在特朗普政府，這種打擊根本不可能發生。”
