評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
Buttonwood
梧桐樹專欄
Forget about the tree
忘了那棵樹吧
How a Wall Street state of mind overtook America.
華爾街思維如何占領美國。
At what time and place should you meet a stranger in New York if you cannot communicate with them beforehand?
在紐約，如果你無法事先與陌生人溝通，你應該在什么時間和地點與他們見面？
This hypothetical puzzle was first posed by Thomas Schelling, a game theorist, in 1960, as a method of explaining “focal points”—the solution people default to when co-ordinating if they are unable to converse.
這個假設性謎題最早由博弈論理論家托馬斯·謝林在1960年提出，用于解釋“聚焦點”——在人們無法交談的情況下，協調行動時彼此默認的解決方案。
The most common answer, according to students he quizzed, was noon at “the information booth in Grand Central Station”.
他詢問的學生給出的最常見的答案是中午在“中央車站的問訊處”見面。
Now imagine an augmented version of Schelling’s thought experiment, designed to find the focal point of American capitalism.
現在請想象一下謝林思想實驗的一個增強版本，這個版本的目的是找到美國資本主義的聚焦點。
You have to pick a place, anywhere in America, to meet a stranger to strike a financial deal.
你必須選擇美國的任意一個地點與陌生人見面，達成一項金融交易。
Where and when would you choose?
你會選擇在何時何地與陌生人見面？
It is difficult to think of a more natural location than 11 Wall Street, home of the New York Stock Exchange, at 9.30 am, when the opening bell rings.
很難想象還有比華爾街11號更理所應當的地方了，這是紐約證券交易所的地址，見面時間應該是早上9點30分，開盤鐘聲響起時。
Perhaps even under the Buttonwood tree that adorns its front steps.
也許地點還可以具體到在那棵點綴其前門臺階的梧桐樹下面。
Outside the stock exchange is where the now iconic “charging bull” statue was placed in 1989, before later being moved round the corner.
交易所門外就是1989年放置現在的標志性“沖刺公?！钡裣竦牡胤?，后來雕像被移到了拐角處。
The nearest park is where “Occupy Wall Street” protesters gathered in the years following the global financial crisis of 2007-09.
離交易所最近的公園是2007-09年全球金融危機后“占領華爾街”抗議者聚集的地方。
When your correspondent arrived in New York in 2019, she felt a thrill upon hearing “the next stop is Wall Street”, then another when she first laid eyes on the enormous American flag unfurled over the stock exchange’s columned facade.
本文記者曾于2019年來到紐約，當聽到“下一站，華爾街”時，她感到一陣激動，然后當她第一次看到在紐約證券交易所的排列著石柱的正面，巨大的美國國旗迎風招展時，她又感到一陣激動。
And yet, now she is moving on to a new job, she realises that over the past five years, few of the biggest stories in American finance have required her to venture into downtown Manhattan.
然而現在她要換一份新工作了，并意識到在過去五年里，很少有美國金融界的大事件需要她進入曼哈頓下城區的華爾街。
This is not because the action itself has been lacking.
這并不是因為缺乏金融活動。
From meme stocks to the venture-capital boom and FTX to the rise of private capital, it has been a wild time for capital allocation in America.
從網紅股票到風險投資熱潮，從加密貨幣交易所FTX到私人資本的崛起，美國的資本配置經歷了一段瘋狂時期。
It is just that traditional Wall Street institutions—the exchanges, the investment banks—have not had a large part to play.
只是傳統的華爾街機構——交易所、投資銀行——并沒有發揮很大的作用。
When retail traders, bored at home and flush with covid-19 handouts, seemed to seize control of the stockmarket and pushed the price of shares in GameStop, a video-game retailer, to absurd levels, almost none of the activity took place on an exchange.
當零售交易員（即散戶）在疫情期間待在家里百無聊賴，手頭上又有很多疫情補助金時，他們似乎掌控了股票市場，并將視頻游戲零售商“游戲驛站”的股價推高到了荒唐的高水平，幾乎所有這些交易活動都不是在交易所進行。（注：“游戲驛站”股票在論壇被強行炒成高價，成為了第一支網紅股票。）
The traders bought shares on Robinhood, a retail broker in California, which mostly directed their orders to Citadel Securities, a marketmaker then in Chicago, which matches orders “off-exchange”.
散戶們在加利福尼亞的股票經紀商羅賓漢軟件上購買股票，羅賓漢將大部分交易指令傳給當時位于芝加哥的做市商“城堡證券”，該做市商在“交易所之外”匹配交易指令。
Indeed, almost half of all stock trading is now executed off-exchange.
事實上，現在幾乎一半的股票交易都是在交易所之外進行。
The boom in venture investing, in the Bay Area, and private-equity funding, in uptown Manhattan, has enabled thousands of firms to remain private.
舊金山灣區風險投資的繁榮，再加上曼哈頓上城區私募股權投資的繁榮，使成千上萬的公司保持私有化而無需上市。
As a consequence, just half as many companies are listed in America as two decades ago.
因此，在美國上市的公司數量僅為二十年前的一半。
Even tech giants such as Stripe, which is probably worth more than $70bn, have not made their public debut.
即使像Stripe（在線支付服務商）這種市值可能超過700億美元的科技巨頭也尚未公開上市。
Private-equity shops have hoovered up businesses and investors’ capital.
私募股權公司已經吸納了企業和投資者的大量資本。
In 2019 Blackstone, America’s largest private-markets firm, was worth just $40bn, and was hardly a household name, except to those who allocated money for endowments or state pension funds.
2019年，美國最大的私人市場公司黑石集團市值僅為400億美元，而且除了那些為捐款基金或州養老基金分配資金的人知道這個集團之外，黑石集團并不算家喻戶曉。
It is now worth $190 bn, making it America’s fifth-most-valuable financial institution.
現在黑石集團價值1900億美元，使其成為美國第五最有價值的金融機構。
Many of those who manage America’s biggest hedge funds long ago decamped to Greenwich, Connecticut.
許多管理美國最大對沖基金的人很久以前就搬到了康涅狄格州的格林威治。
Some have migrated even further, often to Miami.
有些人甚至搬得更遠，一般是邁阿密。
The city’s pastel-hued Wynwood neighbourhood also played host to important crypto firms.
邁阿密的溫伍德街區有彩色粉筆般的淡雅色彩，同時也是主要加密貨幣公司的所在地。
FTX, a now-defunct crypto exchange, was in the midst of building its American headquarters there when it imploded.
現已倒閉的加密貨幣交易所FTX在其遭遇崩潰時正在溫伍德建設美國總部。
Even slower trends, such as the decline of defined-benefit pension funds and the rise of index funds, have led to dispersion from Wall Street.
即使是更緩慢的趨勢，如固定收益養老基金的減少和指數基金的增加，也導致投資機構從華爾街離開。
Individuals now stick assets into the likes of Vanguard, which sits in the heaving metropolis of Valley Forge, Pennsylvania.
個人現在將資產投進先鋒領航集團等公司，該集團位于賓夕法尼亞州福吉谷的繁華大都市。
The result is a paradox.
結果是一個悖論。
Wall Street the place is diminished, Wall Street the state of mind is triumphant.
華爾街這個地方已經被削弱了，而華爾街這種思維卻大獲全勝。
Brokerage apps, downloaded onto phones everywhere, have made traders of millions of Americans.
股票經紀應用程序可以下載到全國各地的手機上，從而使數百萬美國人成為了股票交易者。
The idea that defines Wall Street—how best to allocate capital—now preoccupies delivery drivers in Los Angeles and farm labourers in Wyoming.
定義了華爾街的理念——如何最好地配置資本——現在也占據了洛杉磯貨運司機和懷俄明州農場工人的頭腦。
The dynamism of American markets is obvious across the world.
美國市場的活力在全世界都是顯而易見的。
American publicly traded stocks make up 60% of the total value of such equities worldwide, the highest share in half a century.
美國公開交易的股票占全球公開交易股票總價值的60%，是半個世紀以來的最高份額。
It is tempting to think this bodes ill.
這不禁讓人覺得這是個壞兆頭。
Surely animal spirits cannot run rampant evermore?
動物精神肯定不可能永遠狂熱下去吧？（注：動物精神指人們在經濟活動中因外界因素影響，而做出的非理性決策。）
Maybe it is all a mistake.
也許一切都是錯誤的。
If so, that will be a story for this newspaper’s next Wall Street correspondent.
如果是這樣，這將是本刊下一任華爾街記者要報道的故事。
