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打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
America's economy
美國經濟
Noise cancelling
屏蔽噪音
Why Jerome Powell has gambled on a big interest-rate cut.
為什么杰羅姆·鮑威爾冒險大幅降息。
The Federal Reserve’s decision on September 18th to lower interest rates by half a percentage point, to between 4.75% and 5%, is momentous.
美聯儲9月18日決定將利率降低0.5個百分點，降至4.75%至5%之間，這一決定意義重大。
As the first cut by America’s central bank since it lifted rates to quell inflation, the shift marks the start of a monetary-easing cycle.
自美國央行為抑制通脹而加息以來，這是首次降息，這一轉變標志著貨幣寬松周期的開始。
It also represents a bet that inflation will soon be yesterday’s problem and that action is required to support the labour market.
這也代表著一種押注，押注通貨膨脹很快就會成為過去的問題，而且需要采取行動來支持勞動力市場。
For the first time since 2005, one of the Fed’s governors in Washington dissented from the decision.
自2005年以來，首次有華盛頓美聯儲的一位委員對該決定提出異議。
Michelle Bowman preferred to cut rates by a quarter-point.
米歇爾·鮑曼傾向于降息0.25%。
When the Fed raised rates between early 2022 and mid-2023, it telegraphed the size of each rise in advance.
當美聯儲在2022年初至2023年中期提高利率時，每次都會提前透露加息的幅度。
This time there was uncertainty about how big the reduction would be.
這一次，對于降息的幅度存在不確定性。
A week earlier, market pricing implied roughly 65% odds that the Fed would cut rates by a quarter-point and 35% odds of a half-point.
一周前，市場定價暗示，美聯儲降息0.25%的概率約為65%，降息0.5%的概率約為35%。
By the day before the decision, pricing had flipped, indicating a 65% probability of a half-point cut.
在決策的前一天，市場定價翻轉，表明有65%的可能性降息0.5%。
That some investors, albeit a minority, were still positioned for a smaller move helps explain why stocks rallied at first after the Fed opted for a bigger cut.
一些投資者（盡管是少數）仍然預期美聯儲會采取較小幅度的降息，這有助于解釋為什么在美聯儲選擇更大幅度的降息后，股市先是上漲。
The argument for a half-point cut rests on several pillars.
支持降息0.5%的理由基于以下幾個方面。
Crucially, the Fed is confident that it is on track to bring inflation under control.
最關鍵的是，美聯儲有信心自己正在將通脹控制在可控范圍內。
Price rises have slowed to an annual pace of 2.5%, not far from its target of 2%.
物價上漲速度已經放緩至每年2.5%，離2%的目標不遠了。
With oil prices sagging and rents rising more slowly, there is a good chance that inflation will soon ease further.
隨著油價下跌和租金上漲速度放緩，通貨膨脹很有可能很快進一步緩解。
So the Fed’s worries have shifted to the job market.
因此，美聯儲的擔憂已經轉移到了就業市場。
The unemployment rate of 4.2% is low, but nearly a full percentage point higher than early last year.
4.2% 的失業率很低，但比去年年初高出近一個百分點。
And companies have pared back their hiring.
而且公司已經削減了招聘。
Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chair, portrayed the rate cut as a recalibration of monetary policy in line with a lessening of inflation risks and an increase in unemployment risks.
美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾將降息描述為貨幣政策的重新調整，使貨幣政策與通脹風險的降低和失業風險的增加相一致。
Mr Powell’s cut is also a form of insurance.
鮑威爾的降息也是一種保險形式。
It takes months for rate reductions to filter through the economy.
降低利率需要幾個月的時間才能在經濟中產生影響。
Given this lag, and given the expectation that the economy will continue to slow, it makes sense for the Fed to make a bigger move now in order to get ahead of the coming weakness.
鑒于這種滯后性和經濟將繼續放緩的預期，美聯儲現在采取更積極的降息行動以應對即將到來的經濟疲軟是有道理的。
The central bank was late in raising rates in 2022.
央行在2022年加息的行動遲緩。
This time, it hopes that starting with a bigger cut will steer the economy towards a soft landing, avoiding the recession which many analysts once thought inevitable.
這一次央行希望，一開始就進行更大幅度的降息將引導經濟實現軟著陸，避免許多分析師一度認為不可避免的經濟衰退。
“We don’t think we’re behind,” said Mr Powell.
“我們認為我們沒有滯后，”鮑威爾說，
“We think this is timely.
“我們認為這次的舉措是及時的。
But I think you can take this as sign of our commitment not to get behind.”
但是我認為，你們可以把這看作是我們承諾不滯后的標志。”
The Fed’s big cut nevertheless poses some dangers.
然而美聯儲的大幅降息也帶來了一些危險。
Despite the cracks in the labour market, the economy as a whole appears to be holding up well.
盡管勞動力市場出現問題，但整體經濟似乎表現良好。
Resilient consumption has put it on track for annualised growth of 3% in the current quarter, well ahead of most forecasts just a month ago.
消費力恢復，使本季度的消費年化增長率達到了3%，遠遠超過一個月前的大多數預測。
A hefty rate cut against a strong economic backdrop risks sending the wrong signal to financial markets.
在經濟強勁的背景下大幅降息，有可能向金融市場發出錯誤信號。
The central bank judged that this risk was manageable.
中央銀行判斷這種風險是可控的。
According to projections released on September 18th, the median forecast of Fed officials is that they will reduce rates by another 1.5 percentage points by the end of next year.
根據9月18日發布的預測，美聯儲官員的中位數預測是，到明年年底美聯儲將再降息1.5個百分點。
They could easily make fewer cuts if inflation proves to be more stubborn.
如果通貨膨脹被證明更加頑固，那么他們還有空間減少降息幅度。
Another danger is politics.
另一個危險是政治上的。
Coming just before the presidential election, the big rate cut may attract criticism from Donald Trump as a sign that the Fed, a frequent target of his ire, is trying to help Kamala Harris.
在總統大選前夕大幅降息，可能會招致唐納德·特朗普的批評，認為這是美聯儲試圖幫助卡瑪拉·哈里斯的跡象，而美聯儲經常是他撒氣的目標。
Yet a quarter-point cut could just as easily have invited a charge from Democrats that Mr Powell had been intimidated by Mr Trump.
然而，就算降息0.25%也同樣可能招致民主黨人的指責，稱鮑威爾被特朗普嚇倒了。
Mr Powell has long said that he tunes out the political din.
鮑威爾早就說過，他不理會政治喧囂。
He may well need a hefty pair of noise-cancelling headphones in the coming weeks.
在接下來的幾周里，他很可能需要一副厚重的降噪耳機。
