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Finance & economics
財經版塊
Breakfast staples
早餐基本部分
Big squeeze
榨汁橙子的大麻煩
Orange juice has never been more expensive.
橙汁從未如此昂貴。
Mimosas have a simple recipe: one part champagne, one part orange juice.
含羞草雞尾酒的配方很簡單：一份香檳，一份橙汁。
Soon, though, the tipple may be even less affordable—and not because sparkling wine is ever more expensive.
不過很快，這種酒可能就不會這么便宜了——不是因為起泡酒更貴了。
Concentrate orange-juice futures in New York, which soft-drink producers use to hedge against price swings, have quadrupled since late 2021.
紐約的濃縮橙汁期貨價格自2021年底以來已經翻了兩番，軟飲料生產商利用該期貨來對沖價格波動。
They hit an intraday high of $5.80 a pound on September 9th, their fifth record in a week.
9月9日，濃縮橙汁期貨達到了每磅5.80美元的當天高點，這是一周內第五次創紀錄。
The problem is that the market for oranges to make concentrate is very concentrated.
問題在于，用于制作濃縮汁的橙子市場非常集中。
Growth of the fruit in Florida, once the world’s second-biggest producer, has wilted by 92% in the past 20 years after being hit by pests, hurricanes and rising costs.
佛羅里達州曾經是世界第二大橙子生產地，但在過去20年里，由于受到害蟲、颶風和成本上升的影響，該州的橙子種植量下降了92%。
Other growers, such as Mexico and Spain, largely supply the fresh-fruit market.
其他種植者，如墨西哥和西班牙，主要供應新鮮水果市場。
That leaves Brazil, which accounts for 70% of the world’s production and a similar share of exports.
這就只剩下巴西了，該國占世界橙子產量的70%，出口份額也差不多是70%。
And now it, too, is in trouble.
而現在，巴西也陷入了困境。
At the start of the year the market already faced bitter prospects.
年初，市場已經面臨嚴峻的前景。
After yet another cataclysmic harvest in Florida—the worst since before the second world war—global stocks looked bare.
在佛羅里達州又一次災難性的歉收之后——自第二次世界大戰之前以來最糟糕的一次——全球庫存很匱乏。
Then, in May, growers from Sao Paulo, Brazil’s main orange-producing state, forecast that the year’s crop would fall by 24% compared with the year before, after an ultra-hot flowering season.
隨后在5月，圣保羅（巴西主要橙子生產州）的種植者預測，在經歷了氣溫超高的開花季后，今年的橙子產量將比前一年下降24%。
Farmers also faced a resurgence in citrus greening, an untreatable bacterial disease that turns oranges sour before killing the tree.
果農們還面臨著柑橘黃龍病的再次暴發，這是一種無法治愈的細菌疾病，會使橙子變酸，然后使樹木枯死。
But now even that gloomy forecast looks optimistic, says Andres Padilla of Rabobank, a Dutch lender.
但荷蘭合作銀行的安德烈斯·帕迪拉表示，現在就連這種悲觀的預測看起來也很樂觀。
Brazil’s drought is getting worse—parts of Sao Paulo have seen no rain for four months.
巴西的旱情正在惡化，圣保羅部分地區已經四個月沒有下雨了。
Greening is out of control: in swathes of the state two-thirds of trees are infected.
黃龍病已經失控：該州大片地區三分之二的樹木已受到感染。
Bigger farmers can afford to protect groves by using nets or insecticides.
種植規模較大的果農可以負擔得起使用網或殺蟲劑來保護果樹。
For smaller ones the only fix is to root out potentially diseased trees.
對于小戶果農來說，唯一的解決辦法是砍掉可能患病的樹木。
High prices mean many prefer to keep their groves in the ground, so infections persist.
但砍樹的高價格意味著許多人寧愿把果樹留在地里，因此感染持續存在。
In many fields damage has already been done, meaning this year’s harvest is doomed.
在許多果園，損害已經造成，意味著今年的收成注定是糟糕的。
The next few could be just as bad.
接下來的幾年可能同樣糟糕。
New trees take four years to bear fruit; they too could be exposed to greening.
新樹需要四年才能結果，而且它們也可能會受到黃龍病的影響。
Droughts could sap yields again.
干旱可能再次削弱產量。
Planting in other regions may help, but suitable areas lack water access and are too far away from juice plants, which means that progress is very slow.
在其他地區種植可能會有所幫助，但合適的地區缺乏水源，而且離果汁廠太遠，這意味著換地種植進展非常緩慢。
Some farmers may opt to plant less risky crops than oranges, such as sugar cane.
一些果農可能會選擇種植比橙子風險更小的作物，比如甘蔗。
Despite high prices, global demand for juice remains strong, because consumers are affluent enough to pay more.
盡管價格高昂，但全球對果汁的需求仍然強勁，因為消費者足夠富裕，能夠支付更多費用。
This may lift producers’ profits a little, but not by much, for they also face higher costs.
這可能會使生產者的利潤略有提高，但幅度不大，因為他們也面臨著更高的成本。
Shortages may start to occur soon, probably outside America and Europe, which will be prioritised by retailers as the largest orange-juice markets.
短缺可能很快就會開始出現，可能會出現在美國和歐洲以外的地區，這些地區將被零售商優先考慮，因為它們是最大的橙汁市場。
Barring a miracle, things look rotten for seekers of Vitamin C.
除非出現奇跡，否則追求維生素C（愛喝橙汁）的人們可能情況不妙。
