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The second faltering growth driver is Canada’s petroleum industry, which accounts for 16% of exports.
第二個乏力的經濟增長引擎是加拿大的石油工業，占出口的16%。
Canada underinvested in new production for years after 2014, when a collapse in oil prices hurt its fuel-dependent economy.
2014年油價暴跌重創了依賴石油的加拿大經濟，此后多年，加拿大在新生產方面投資不足。
In America, by contrast, oil-producing states suffered but consumers cheered.
在美國，情況則相反，產油州遭受了損失，但消費者卻歡呼雀躍。
When prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine, investors did more to support American shalemen; the country’s crude output has rocketed.
當俄烏戰爭后油價飆升時，投資者為美國頁巖油商提供了更多支持，美國的原油產量激增。
It was one-quarter higher in the first seven months of 2024 than it was during the same period six years ago.
2024年前七個月的原油產量比六年前同期高出四分之一。
Canada’s has grown by only 11% over the same period.
加拿大原油產量同期僅增長了11%。
Oil’s decline penalises Canada’s economy at large, because it is one of the country’s most productive sectors.
石油價格下跌對整個加拿大經濟造成了不利影響，因為石油是該國生產力最強的部門之一。
That adds to a long-standing productivity problem.
這加劇了長期存在的生產力問題。
Growth in output per hour worked across Canada has been sluggish for two decades.
加拿大全國每小時產出增長率在過去二十年一直低迷。
It increasingly resembles Europe rather than America, which has benefited from a tech boom that has largely eluded Canada .
加拿大越來越像歐洲，而不像美國，美國受益于科技繁榮，而加拿大在很大程度上錯過了這一繁榮。
Its GDP per capita since the pandemic has risen more slowly than that of every other G7 country bar Germany.
其人均GDP自疫情以來的增長速度比除德國以外的所有G7國家都要慢。
What Canada lacked in productivity it could long make up by having more workers, thanks to high immigration.
由于高移民率，加拿大在生產力方面的不足可以在長期內通過勞動力的增加來彌補。
Between 2014 and 2019 its population grew twice as fast as America’s.
在2014年至2019年間，其人口增長速度是美國的兩倍。
Canada has historically been good at integrating migrants into its economy, lifting its GDP and tax take.
加拿大過去一直擅長將移民融入國內經濟，辦法是提高GDP和稅收收入。
But integration takes time, especially when migrants come in record numbers.
但是融合需要時間，尤其是當移民人數創下紀錄的時候。
Recently immigration has sped up, and the newcomers seem less skilled than immigrants who came before.
近來，移民增長速度加快，新移民似乎不如以前的移民有技能。
In 2024 Canada saw the strongest population growth since 1957.
2024年，加拿大見證了自1957年以來最強勁的人口增長。
Many arrivals are classified as “temporary residents”, including low-skilled workers and students.
許多入境者被歸類為“臨時居民”，包括低技能工人和學生。
They are more likely to be unemployed or in low-earning jobs, dampening growth in income per person.
這些人更有可能找不到工作或從事低收入工作，從而抑制了人均收入的增長。
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.6% in August, from 5.1% in April 2023.
加拿大的失業率從2023年4月的5.1%上升到今年8月的6.6%。
Take all this together and it is clear that the seeds of the decoupling were sown much earlier than the pandemic, with sagging services the latest in a series of ailments.
綜合考慮所有這些因素就可以很清楚地看到，與美國經濟分離的種子早在疫情之前就已經播下，服務業的衰退只是一系列弊病中最新顯現的一個。
There are no quick fixes.
沒有快速的解決辦法。
Canada’s central bank has cut interest rates three times so far this year, from 5% in May to 4.25% today.
加拿大央行到今年目前已三次降息，從5月的5%降至目前的4.25%。
But many borrowers will still feel worse off because they have yet to renew their mortgages.
但是許多貸款者仍會感覺自己的財務狀況更糟，因為他們尚未更新抵押貸款利率。
Immigration restrictions have been introduced, including a cap on international students, but that won’t solve Canada’s chronic productivity problem.
移民限制已經出臺，包括對國際學生的限制，但這并不能解決加拿大長期存在的生產力問題。
Catching up to Alabama may soon seem like a distant dream.
想要趕上阿拉巴馬州可能很快都會變得像是一個遙不可及的夢想。
