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Managing American business in hard times: No margin for error
在艱難時期管理美國企業：容不得犯錯
A guide to running a company in a period of stagflation.
在滯脹時期經營公司的指南。
For the leaders of American Inc, high inflation is unwelcome.
美國公司的領導人不歡迎高通脹。
It is also unfamiliar.
對其也不熟悉。
Warren Buffett, 91, the oldest boss in the S&P 500 index of big firms, most recently warned about the dangers of rising prices in his annual shareholder letter for 2011.
91歲的沃倫·巴菲特是標準普爾500指數的大企業中年齡最大的老板，最近的一次，他早在2011年致股東的信中就股價上漲的危險發出了警告。
The average chief executive of a company in the index, aged a stripling 58, had not started university in 1979 when Paul Volcker, inflation’s enemy-in-chief, became chairman of the Federal Reserve.
該指數成分股公司的首席執行官平均年齡為58歲，還很年輕，按照這個年紀來算，在1979年，通貨膨脹的頭號敵人保羅·沃爾克成為美聯儲主席時，他們都還沒有上大學。
By the time the average boss began working the rise of globalised capitalism was ushering in an era of low inflation and high profits.
在這個歲數的老板剛剛開始工作時，全球化資本主義的崛起正迎來一個低通脹、高利潤的時代。
Their firms’ share prices rose between the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the covid-19 pandemic, a decade of rock-bottom inflation.
在2007-2009年的世界金融危機到2019年暴發新冠疫情的這十年間，通貨膨脹觸底，他們公司的股價都有所上漲。
Inflation will stay high for some time yet.
通貨膨脹率仍將在一段時間內居高不下。
On June 7th the World Bank warned that “several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth now seem likely.”
6月7日，世界銀行警告稱，“未來數年，通貨膨脹率高于平均水平，而經濟增長低于平均水平的局面，在目前看來是有可能的。”
A new study by Marijn Bolhuis, Judd Cramer and Lawrence Summers finds that if you measure inflation consistently, today’s rate is not that far off the peak in 1980.
馬爾金·博爾赫斯、賈德·克雷默和勞倫斯·薩默斯的一項新研究發現，如果你一直衡量通脹率，就會發現今天的通脹率與1980年的峰值相差不遠。
As the past creeps up on the future, “stagflation” is preoccupying the denizens of corner offices.
隨著過去逐漸逼近未來，“滯脹”正困擾著高級辦公室里的人。
Today’s executives may think of themselves as battle-hardened—they have experienced a financial crisis and a pandemic.
今天的高管可能認為自己身經百戰--他們經歷了一場金融危機和一場疫情。
However, the stagflationary challenge requires a different toolkit that borrows from the past and also involves new tricks.
然而，應對滯脹挑戰需要一套不同的工具，一套既借鑒過去，也包含新技巧的工具。
The primary task for any management team is to defend margins and cashflow, which investors favour over revenue growth when things get dicey.
任何管理團隊的首要任務都是保護利潤和現金流，當形勢變得不明朗時，投資者更喜歡利潤和現金流，而不是收入增長。
That will require fighting harder down in the trenches of the income statement.
這將需要在損益表的戰壕中更加努力地戰斗。
Although a rise in margins as inflation first picked up last year led politicians to denounce corporate “greedflation”, after-tax profits in fact tend to come down as a share of GDP when price rises persist, based on the experience of all American firms since 1950.
盡管在去年通脹首次抬頭時，利潤率因此上升，引發政界人士譴責企業“貪婪膨脹”，但實際上，根據1950年以來所有美國公司的經驗，當價格持續上漲時，稅后利潤占國內生產總值的比例往往會下降。
To create shareholder value in this environment companies must increase their cashflows in real terms.
為了在這種環境下創造股東價值，企業必須增加實際現金流。
That means a combination of cutting expenses and passing cost inflation on to customers without dampening sales volumes.
這意味著在不影響銷量的情況下，既要削減開支，又要將成本膨脹轉嫁給客戶。
Cost-cutting will not be easy.
削減成本并非易事。
The prices of commodities, transport and labour remain elevated and most companies are price-takers in those markets.
大宗商品、運輸和勞動力的價格仍然居高不下，大多數公司又都是這些市場的價格接受者。
Supply-chain constraints have begun to ease a bit and may keep easing in the coming months.
供應鏈的限制已經開始有所緩解，并可能在未來幾個月繼續放松。
But disruptions will almost certainly continue.
但幾乎可以肯定的是，妨礙將繼續存在。
In April Apple lamented that the industry-wide computer-chip shortage is expected to create a $4bn-8bn “constraint” for the iPhone-maker in the current quarter.
今年4月，蘋果曾哀嘆，整個行業的電腦芯片短缺預計將在本季度給他們這家iPhone制造商帶來40億至80億美元的“限制”。
The input bosses can control most easily is labour.
老板們最容易控制的投入是勞動力。
After months of frenzied hiring, companies are looking to protect margins by getting more from their workers—or getting the same amount from fewer of them.
在瘋狂招聘了數月后，企業正指望通過從員工那里獲得更多利潤--或者從更少的員工那里獲得相同利潤的方式，來保護利潤。
The labour market remains drum-tight: in America wages are up by more than 5% year on year and in April lay-offs hit a record low.
勞動力市場仍然緊張：在美國，工資同比增長了5%以上，4月份的裁員人數創歷史新低。
But, in some corners, the pandemic hiring binge to meet pent-up demand is being unwound.
但是，在一些角落，為滿足人們被壓抑的需求而掀起的疫情招聘狂潮正在消退。
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