There is an even more enticing precedent.
還有一個更誘人的先例。
Accenture, which was spun off from Arthur Andersen and then went public a year before the accounting firm collapsed in 2002, has soared in value to $190bn.
埃森哲是從安達信獨立出來的,在2002年安達信倒閉前一年上市。如今,埃森哲的市值飆升至1900億美元。
EY’s consulting arm would not be worth close to that.
安永的咨詢部門遠不會值這么多錢。
However, the leaked documents, based on recent market conditions, suggest it could raise $10bn by selling a 15% stake.
然而,根據最近的市場狀況,泄露的文件表明,該公司可以通過出售15%的股份籌集100億美元。
The partners who join it would receive 70% of the shares (the remaining 15% would be for lowlier staff).
加入它的合伙人將獲得70%的股份(剩下的15%將留給較低級別的員工)。
It is not all upside for the consultants, though.
不過,這對咨詢公司來說也不全是好事。
The split would involve a cash payout from the spun-off company to partners remaining in the rump EY, and would cover potential claims against the firm for problems such as those at Wirecard, a failed German payments company, and NMC Health, a collapsed British hospital chain, both of which EY audited.
拆分將涉及:一,獨立出來的公司向仍留在安永剩余部分的合作伙伴支付現金;二,支付因一些問題而可能對該公司提出的索賠,比如破產的德國支付公司Wirecard和倒閉的英國醫療連鎖公司NMC Health的問題,這兩家公司都是由安永審計的。
To make the payment, the new firm would reportedly borrow $17bn—a large sum considering that publicly traded rivals like Accenture and TCS have low debts.
據報道,為了支付這筆款項,新公司將借入170億美元--考慮到埃森哲和塔塔咨詢服務公司等上市競爭對手的低負債,這是一筆不小的金額。
Those are not the only competitors, either.
這些也不是唯一的競爭對手。
Barriers to entry in consulting are low.
進入咨詢行業的門檻很低。
Big tech firms such as Microsoft and data-miners such as Palantir may try to muscle into the space.
微軟等大型科技公司和Palantir等數據挖掘公司可能會試圖強行進入這一領域。
The EY brand may have raised the stature of the consultancy practice, but it will probably be floated with a new name.
安永這個品牌可能提升了咨詢業務的聲望,但它很可能會以一個新的名字上市。
Like some other consultants, it could fall victim to delusions of grandeur.
與其他一些咨詢公司一樣,它可能會淪為妄自尊大的受害者。
That is why, despite being the pedestrian side of the business, audit could be a dark horse.
這就是為什么,盡管審計業務平淡乏味,卻可能是一匹黑馬。
Its shortcomings are well known: lack of trust, conflicts of interest, low pay compared with other professional services, the risk that AI-powered “audit bots” will crawl over its business model.
它的缺點眾所周知:缺乏信任、利益沖突、與其他專業服務相比薪酬較低、人工智能驅動的“審計機器人”可能會影響其商業模式。
Yet it has some advantages.
但它也有一些優勢。
For one thing, it remains an entrenched oligopoly.
首先,它仍然是一個根深蒂固的寡頭壟斷。
The Big Four audit 99% of firms in the S&P 500 index.
四大會計師事務所審計了標普500指數中99%的公司。
Moreover, structural changes are afoot that could benefit it.
此外,結構性改變正在發生,這可能會讓它受益。
The first is regulatory.
第一個變化是監管問題。
As the Big Four auditors are forced to become more independent, they are raising fees.
隨著這四大審計公司被迫變得更加獨立,它們正在提高費用。
As pressure mounts to improve audit quality, they will charge more for it.
隨著提高審計質量的壓力越來越大,它們將收取更高的費用。
The second change is to their scope.
第二個變化是它們的工作范圍。
The firms are expecting a lot of new work as regulators force companies to disclose more about their climate impact.
隨著監管機構迫使公司披露更多有關其氣候影響的信息,這些公司預計會有大量新工作。
Much of this will have to be checked and approved by auditors.
其中很多信息將必須得到審計公司的檢查和批準。
One senior accountant talks excitedly about hiring “thousands of eco-warriors”.
一位資深會計師興奮地談到要雇傭“數千名生態衛士”。
If history is any guide, the windfall from the split may favour the auditors, too.
如果以史為鑒,拆分帶來的意外之財可能也會讓審計公司受益。
Though the partners remaining on the audit side would receive lower payouts than those departing with the consultancy, cash in hand is precious, especially in times of volatile markets.
盡管留在審計部門的合伙人獲得的分紅會低于離開咨詢公司的合伙人,但手中的現金是寶貴的,尤其是在市場動蕩的時候。
The last time EY split off its consultancy, selling it to Capgemini, a French firm, in 2000, the partners who received cash, not shares, did better.
安永上次在2000年將其咨詢業務拆分,出售給法國凱捷公司時,獲得現金而非股票的合伙人表現更好。
And after that the auditors simply rebuilt the consulting side of the business.
在那之后,審計公司簡單地重建了咨詢業務。
Even now they plan to retain elements of advisory work, such as parts of the tax practice.
即使是現在,它們也計劃保留部分咨詢工作,例如部分稅務業務。
These could again be reconstructed into something bigger.
這些可以再次被重建成更大的業務。
Those with long memories, such as the older partners, will know all this.
那些擁有更長久記憶的人,比如資歷更深的合伙人,會知道這一切。
Many of the more junior ones may find themselves lured by the eat-what-you-kill excitement of consultancy.
許多資歷較淺的人可能會發現,自己被咨詢公司那種論功行賞制度帶來的興奮感所吸引。
But if they ignore history, they should not ignore comedy.
但如果他們忽視歷史,就不應該忽視喜劇。
Mr Anchovy never did become a lion-tamer.
鳳尾魚先生從未成為一名馴獅手。
What he thought was a lion was instead an anteater.
他以為的獅子其實是食蟻獸。
Shown a photo of a real lion, he passed out.
給他看了一張真獅子的照片后,他昏了過去。
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