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Finance & economics
財經板塊
Russia’s economy: Tears but a flesh wound
俄羅斯經濟：輕傷而已
Russia’s economy is back on its feet
俄羅斯經濟已經恢復元氣
In early april we pointed to preliminary evidence that the Russian economy was defying predictions of collapse, even as Western countries introduced unprecedented sanctions.
4月初，我們曾指出，初步證據表明，盡管西方國家對俄羅斯實施了前所未有的制裁，但俄羅斯經濟并未像預期的那樣崩潰。
Recent data further support this view.
最近的數據進一步支持了這一觀點。
Helped along by capital controls and high interest rates, the rouble is now as valuable as it was before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.
在資本管制和高利率的推動下，盧布現在與2月底俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前一樣值錢。
Russia appears to be keeping up with payments of its foreign-currency bonds.
俄羅斯似乎在償還其外幣債券。
The real economy is surprisingly resilient too.
俄羅斯實體經濟的韌性也令人驚訝。
True, Russian consumer prices have risen by more than 10% since the beginning of the year, as the rouble’s initial depreciation made imports more expensive and many Western companies pulled out, reducing supply.
誠然，由于盧布最初的貶值使得進口更加昂貴，許多西方公司撤出，減少了供應，俄羅斯的消費價格自今年年初以來已經上漲了10%以上。
The number of firms late on their wage payments seems to be growing.
似乎有越來越多的公司拖欠工資。
But “real-time” measures of Russian economic activity are largely holding up.
但是，俄羅斯經濟活動的“實時”指標在很大程度上保持了穩定。
Total electricity consumption has fallen only a smidge.
總用電量僅略有下降。
After a lull in March, Russians seem to be spending fairly freely on cafes, bars and restaurants, according to a spending tracker run by Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank.
根據俄羅斯最大的銀行——俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行的支出跟蹤，經歷3月份的一段淡季之后，俄羅斯人似乎在咖啡館、酒吧和餐館上的消費相當自由。
On April 29th the central bank lowered its key interest rate from 17% to 14%, a sign that a financial panic which began in February has eased slightly.
4月29日，中央銀行將基準利率從17%下調至14%，這標志著始于2月份的金融恐慌有所緩解。
The Russian economy is undoubtedly shrinking, but some economists’ predictions of a gdp decline of up to 15% this year are starting to look pessimistic.
毫無疑問，俄羅斯的經濟在萎縮，但一些經濟學家對俄今年GDP降幅高達15%的預測似乎要落空了。
Even before the invasion Russia was a fairly closed economy, limiting sanctions’ bite.
即便在入侵前，俄羅斯也是一個相當封閉的經濟體，這讓西方的制裁效果有限。
But the biggest reason for the economy’s resilience relates to fossil fuels.
但俄羅斯經濟恢復的最大原因與化石燃料有關。
Since the invasion Russia has exported at least $65bn-worth of fossil fuels via shipments and pipelines, suggests the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a think-tank in Finland.
芬蘭智庫能源與清潔空氣研究中心表示，自入侵以來，俄羅斯已通過船運和管道出口了至少650億美元的化石燃料。
In the first quarter of 2022 the government’s revenues from hydrocarbons rose by over 80% year on year.
在2022年第一季度，政府來自化石燃料的收入同比增長了80%以上。
On May 4th the European Commission proposed a ban on imports of all Russian oil that would come into full force by the end of the year.
5月4日，歐盟委員會提議禁止進口所有俄羅斯石油，該禁令將于今年年底全面生效。
Until then, expect the Russian economy to continue to trundle along.
在那之前，預計俄羅斯經濟還會繼續緩慢發展。
