The simplest component of our ranking is the rate of core inflation. This measure gives a better sense of underlying price pressure.
我們排名中最簡單的組成部分是核心通脹率。這一指標更好地反映了潛在的價格壓力。
Among our ten countries, America leads the pack (though core inflation is above average pretty much everywhere).
在這十個國家中,美國的這一指標最高(雖然幾乎所有國家的核心通脹率都高于平均水平)。
A second measure, of dispersion, helps capture how broadly based price pressures are.
第二個衡量指標,離散程度,有助于了解價格壓力的基礎有多普遍。
Headline inflation being driven by one or two items—say, the cost of a restaurant meal—is less worrisome than if the price of everything is going up quickly.
由一兩種商品(比如餐館的餐費)驅動的整體通脹遠不如所有商品的價格都快速上漲那樣讓人擔憂。
We divide a country’s consumer-goods basket into as many as 16 components, then calculate the share where the inflation rate exceeds 2%.
我們把一個國家的消費品籃子分成多達16種類別,然后計算通脹率超過2%的類別比例。
In Japan just a quarter cross that threshold. But in Australia more than two-thirds do.
在日本,只有四分之一的類別超過了2%。但在澳大利亞,超過三分之二的類別都超過了2%。
JPMorgan Chase, a bank, breaks down Britain’s consumer-price index into 85 components, and finds that inflation rates for 69% of them are running above their 1997-2019 averages.
摩根大通銀行將英國消費者價格指數分為85種類別,發現其中69%的通脹率高于1997-2019年的平均水平。
Inflation could also spiral if workers demand higher wages to compensate them for rising prices (and firms raise their prices in turn).
如果工人要求更高的工資來抵消上漲的物價(公司反過來也會提高物價),通貨膨脹就會螺旋上升。
Unit labour costs, which measure the relationship between what workers are paid and the value of what they produce, are rising far faster than their long-run average in many countries.
在許多國家,單位勞動力成本的增長速度遠遠高于長期平均水平,單位勞動力成本衡量的是工人的收入與其生產價值之間的關系。
On May 5th America’s statisticians revealed that these rose by 7% in the first quarter, compared with a year ago, up from a pre-pandemic average of around 2%.
5月5日,美國統計學家透露,與前一年相比,今年第一季度的單位勞動力成本增長了7%,高于疫情前約2%的平均水平。
Michael Saunders of the Bank of England has noted that with pay deals being struck at up to 5% a year, but productivity growth of only around 1%, Britain’s unit-labour-cost growth is probably “well above the pace consistent with the inflation target of 2%”.
英格蘭銀行的邁克爾·桑德斯指出,工資協議每年上漲高達5%,但生產率增長僅為1%左右,英國的單位勞動力成本增長可能“遠高于2%的通脹目標”。
Our last two measures assess households’ expectations. The higher these remain, the more likely it is that inflation becomes embedded.
我們最后兩個指標評估的是家庭對通脹的預期。這些數值越高,通脹就越有可能牢固扎根。
One proprietary data set, provided to The Economist by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Morning Consult, a consultancy, and Raphael Schoenle of Brandeis University, is a rare reliable cross-country gauge of public inflation expectations.
克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行的研究人員、“莫寧咨詢公司”和布蘭迪斯大學的拉斐爾·舍恩勒向《經濟學人》提供了一組專有數據,這些數據是罕見的、可靠的全國性公共通脹預期指標。
In May 2021 a respondent in the median rich country thought inflation over the next 12 months would be 2.3%.
2021年5月,中等富裕國家的一名受訪者認為,未來12個月的通脹率將為2.3%。
Now they expect a rate of 4.5%; Canadians, an even higher 6%.
現在他們預計這一數據為4.5%;加拿大則更高,為6%。
A measure of Google searches also suggests the subject is weighing on people’s minds. Britons now search more frequently for “inflation” than they do for Taylor Swift.
對谷歌搜索量的評估也表明,通貨膨脹正困擾著人們?,F在,英國人對“通貨膨脹”的搜索量比“泰勒·斯威夫特”還頻繁。