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Finance and Economics
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Inflation in America
美國的通貨膨脹
Rental resurgence
租賃死灰復(fù)燃
Yet another upward force on American inflation: the housing boom
促進(jìn)美國通貨膨脹的另一股力量是房地產(chǎn)繁榮
FROM ENERGY and used cars to wages and shipping, the list of factors pushing up American inflation is growing fast.
從能源和二手車到工資和航運(yùn)，推動(dòng)美國通貨膨脹的因素清單正在快速增加。
Could housing be next?
住房會(huì)是下一個(gè)嗎？
According to figures published on October 13th, the consumer-price index (CPI) rose by 5.4% in the year to September.
根據(jù)10月13日公布的數(shù)據(jù)，截至今年9月，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)CPI上漲了5.4%。
Its shelter component increased by 3.2%, up from 2.8% in the year to August.
其住房部分從今年8月的2.8%上升到3.2%。
And it has further to run.
而且它還有更長的路要走。
Shelter has the biggest weight in the CPI, making up 32% of the basket of goods and services used to construct the index.
住房在CPI中的權(quán)重最大，占構(gòu)建該指數(shù)的“一籃子商品和服務(wù)”的32%。
The component is broken into two main buckets: regular rents paid by tenants, and the imputed cost of living in owned homes.
這一組成部分分為兩個(gè)主要部分：租戶支付的定期租金，以及估計(jì)的自有住房生活成本。
Although house prices rose by 20% in the year to July, they do not feed directly into the CPI.
盡管截至7月份，房價(jià)一年上漲了20%，但它們并沒有直接影響CPI指數(shù)。
That is because statisticians treat home purchases as investment rather than consumption.
這是因?yàn)榻y(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家將購房視為投資而不是消費(fèi)。
Instead they capture homeownership by estimating “owners’ equivalent rent”, the amount an owned property could collect based on leased ones nearby.
取而代之的是，他們通過估計(jì)“業(yè)主等值租金”來獲取住房所有權(quán)，即一處自有房產(chǎn)根據(jù)附近的租賃房產(chǎn)可以收取的金額。
The rental market, therefore, is what drives shelter inflation.
因此，租賃市場(chǎng)是推動(dòng)住房通脹的原因。
For much of the pandemic both rents and shelter inflation were depressed.
在疫情期間的大部分時(shí)間里，租金和住房通脹都處于低迷狀態(tài)。
But there are two reasons to think the latest pickup in shelter costs will continue.
但有兩個(gè)原因讓我們認(rèn)為住房成本的最新回升將持續(xù)下去。
The first is the expiry of the government’s eviction moratorium.
首先是政府的暫緩驅(qū)逐令到期。
The policy had helped renters stay in their homes in 2020, even as lockdowns meant some were unable to work.
2020年，這項(xiàng)政策幫助租戶留在了家里，盡管封鎖意味著一些人無法工作。
Many tenants also negotiated lower rents during that time.
在此期間，許多租戶通過談判降低了租金。
Now that the moratorium has lapsed, Goldman Sachs, a bank, expects about 750,000 evictions by the end of year.
現(xiàn)在禁令已經(jīng)失效，高盛銀行預(yù)計(jì)到今年年底將有大約75萬人被驅(qū)逐。
That could lead to a jump in rents.
這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致租金飆升。
The largest rises occur when a new tenant moves in, says Randal Verbrugge of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
克利夫蘭聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行的蘭德爾·弗布魯格說，新租戶入住時(shí)，房價(jià)漲幅最大。
Rents for new leases are up by 17% compared with what the previous tenant paid, suggests RealPage, a rental site.
租賃網(wǎng)站RealPage表示，與之前的租戶相比，新租約的租金上漲了17%。
The second reason why shelter inflation might rise further is that market prices feed through to the inflation figures only slowly.
住房通脹可能進(jìn)一步上升的第二個(gè)原因是，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格對(duì)通脹數(shù)據(jù)的影響非常緩慢。
Landlords tend to charge more rent when the value of their property goes up, but with a lag.
房產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲時(shí)，房東往往會(huì)收取更高的租金，但具有一定的滯后性。
Rises in new rents also take time to appear in consumer prices, because leases tend to last a year, and the CPI samples rents only every six months or so.
新租金的上漲也需要一段時(shí)間才能體現(xiàn)在消費(fèi)價(jià)格中，因?yàn)樽赓U往往持續(xù)一年，而CPI數(shù)據(jù)每六個(gè)月左右才會(huì)出現(xiàn)租金上漲。
President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers estimates that a one-percentage-point increase in house-price inflation leads to a rise of 0.11 percentage points in the shelter component in 16 months’ time.
美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登的經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問委員會(huì)估計(jì)，房價(jià)通脹每上升1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，住房部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)在16個(gè)月內(nèi)就會(huì)上升0.11個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
A timely measure of rents, published by Zillow, a property site, is up by around 10% on the year.
房地產(chǎn)網(wǎng)站Zillow公布的租金數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今天房租比去年上漲了約10%。
Further rises could follow as more new leases are signed.
隨著更多新租約的簽署，房價(jià)可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步上漲。
Laura Rosner-Warburton of Macro Policy Perspectives, a research firm, expects shelter inflation to climb to 4-6% by the end of 2022.
宏觀政策展望研究公司的勞拉·羅斯納·沃伯頓預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年底，住房通脹將攀升至4-6%。
That would contribute 1.3-1.9 percentage points to headline inflation, twice its average contribution in the decade before the pandemic.
這將為總體通脹率貢獻(xiàn)1.3-1.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，是疫情前10年平均水平的兩倍。
The next inflationary force could be home-grown.
下一股通脹力量可能是國內(nèi)的。
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