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James Hamilton of the University of California, San Diego, studies historical oil shocks and finds that a 20% rise in the real price of energy is associated with a 15-point drop in an index of consumer confidence.
加州大學圣地亞哥分校的詹姆斯·漢密爾頓研究了歷史上的石油沖擊，發現實際能源價格上漲20%，消費者信心指數下降15個百分點。
(A gauge of American sentiment collected by the University of Michigan has fallen by nearly 17 points since April 2021.)
(密歇根大學收集的美國人情緒指標自2021年4月以來下降了近17個百分點。）
An energy-induced slump could be mitigated if consumers meet higher bills by drawing on savings.
如果消費者通過儲蓄來支付更高的賬單，能源引發的衰退可能會得到緩解。
By the end of 2020, households across large rich economies had accumulated “excess”, or above-normal, savings equivalent to more than 6% of GDP.
到2020年底，各大發達國家的家庭積累“超額”或高于正常水平的儲蓄，相當于GDP的6%以上。
Nonetheless, analysts at Goldman reckon that costly energy will reduce the growth rate of consumption in America by 0.4 percentage points this year, and by 0.5 points in 2022.
盡管如此，高盛的分析師估計，昂貴的能源將使美國今年的消費增長率下降0.4個百分點，2022年下降0.5個百分點。
Those inclined to see the petrol tank as half full may note that slower consumption growth could help ease strains on supply chains, which have been stressed by especially strong demand for durable goods.
那些傾向于認為油箱已經半滿的人（樂觀派）可能會注意到，消費增長放緩可能有助于緩解供應鏈的壓力，供應鏈一直受到耐用品需求特別強勁的壓力。
Those who grumble that it is half empty may worry that power cuts in places like China could result in still more shortages.
那些抱怨它一半是空的人（悲觀派）可能會擔心，像中國這樣的地方的停電可能會導致更多的電力短缺。
Crucially, the toll of the shock will depend on how central banks respond.
至關重要的是，沖擊造成的損失將取決于各國央行如何應對。
Fuel prices tend to feed through to households’ expectations of inflation.
燃料價格往往會影響到家庭對通脹的預期。
That will be unwelcome news for central bankers, who are already worrying about high inflation.
對于已經在擔心高通脹的央行來說，這將是一個不好的消息。
Research by Mr Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou, also of the Dallas Fed, suggests that energy prices mainly influence short-term expectations, rather than those further out.
基利安和同樣來自達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的周曉青的研究表明，能源價格主要影響短期預期，而不是長遠預期。
Those expectations could adjust just as quickly when energy prices fall.
當能源價格下跌時，這些預期也會迅速調整。
Some central banks, such as the Bank of England, may nevertheless worry that the energy shock worsens the risk that inflation expectations become unmoored from their targets.
盡管如此，英國央行等一些央行可能仍會擔心，能源沖擊加劇了通脹預期偏離目標的風險。
But the dilemma is that, if they overreact, they depress consumption further and induce deflationary pressure, just as energy prices return to earth.
但兩難的是，如果他們反應過度，進一步抑制消費，會引發通縮壓力，就像能源價格回落一樣。
The longer prices stay high, the more their effects evolve.
遺憾的是，燃料價格居高不下的時間越長，其影響就越大。
Households and firms will become better able to reduce their exposure to energy.
家庭和企業將能夠更好地減少能源消耗。
Indeed, work by John Hassler, Per Krusell and Conny Olovsson of the Institute for International Economic Studies in Stockholm suggests that costly energy affects the nature of innovation.
事實上，斯德哥爾摩國際經濟研究所的約翰·哈斯勒、佩爾·克魯塞爾和康尼·奧洛夫松的研究表明，昂貴的能源會影響創新的本質。
Firms direct inventive efforts so as to economise on scarce inputs.
公司會增加創造性的付出，以減少稀缺資源的投入。
When energy is abundant, they focus on capital- or labour-saving innovation.
當能源充足時，他們專注于節約資本或勞動力的創新。
When energy is scarce, by contrast, firms do more to improve the energy-efficiency of production, and innovation suffers—as it did in the 1970s.
相反，當能源匱乏時，企業會采取更多措施來提高生產的能效，而創新則會受到影響，就像在20世紀70年代所做的那樣。
The extent to which history repeats, however, also depends on what governments do.
然而，歷史重演的程度也取決于政府的行動。
They could shield customers from higher energy prices, which would be politically popular but delay the moment of transition from dirty fuels.
它們可以保護客戶免受更高的能源價格的影響，這在政治上是受歡迎的，但會推遲高污染燃料的轉型。
Or they could encourage more investment in renewable-power capacity, so that energy constraints bind less.
或者，他們可以鼓勵對可再生能源發電能力的更多投資，從而減少能源限制。
Such bold action could end the threat posed by expensive coal, gas and oil, once and for all.
這種大膽的行動可以一勞永逸地結束昂貴的煤炭、天然氣和石油帶來的威脅。
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