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Finance and Economics
財經(jīng)版塊
Free exchange | Tanks for nothing
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How soaring energy costs could hobble the recovery
飆升的能源成本如何阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇
FUEL PRICES over the past month show the same vertiginous upward slope as a covid-19 case count during a particularly brutal wave.
過去一個月的期貨價格顯示出與殘酷的冠狀病毒病例數(shù)量一樣令人眩暈的上升比率。
Coal and gas prices have touched all-time highs.
煤炭和天然氣價格已經(jīng)觸及歷史新高。
Asian spot prices for gas have jumped by nearly 1,000% in the past year.
在過去的一年里，亞洲的天然氣現(xiàn)貨價格上漲了近1000%。
The cost of oil has soared as shortages of other fuels have pushed up demand for crude.
由于其他燃料的短缺推高了原油需求，石油成本飆升。
Surging energy costs are in many respects an expression of the same phenomenon driving supply-chain backlogs all over the world.
飆升的能源成本在很多方面都體現(xiàn)了同樣的現(xiàn)象，推動了全球供應(yīng)鏈的積壓。
An unexpectedly strong rebound in demand has run headlong into stagnant supply.
需求出人意料地反彈強(qiáng)勁，導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)停滯不前。
Disruptions, such as shortfalls in hydroelectric-power production caused by droughts, have exacerbated the shortages.
干旱導(dǎo)致的水電生產(chǎn)短缺等問題加劇了供應(yīng)短缺。
So has the rush to boost low inventories in response to the energy crunch.
為應(yīng)對能源危機(jī)而急于增加低庫存的做法也是如此。
But surging fuel prices are also more ominous than supply-chain woes.
但燃料價格飆升比供應(yīng)鏈問題更令人頭大。
Past energy shocks have been associated not only with inflation, but deep recessions, too, as exemplified by the economic travails of the 1970s.
過去的能源沖擊不僅與通貨膨脹有關(guān)，還與深度衰退聯(lián)系在一起，上世紀(jì)70年代的經(jīng)濟(jì)難題就是例證。
What does the latest crunch hold in store?
最新的危機(jī)將會帶來什么呢？
The inflationary consequences of costly energy are already apparent.
昂貴的能源帶來的通脹后果已經(jīng)很明顯了。
In the euro area, headline annual inflation jumped to 3.4% in September, thanks to a 17.4% leap in energy costs.
在歐元區(qū)，由于能源成本激增17.4%，9月份年度通脹率躍升至3.4%。
Underlying "core" inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) rose by a more modest 1.9%.
潛在的“核心”通脹（不包括食品和能源價格）上升了1.9%。
In America underlying inflation ran hotter in September, at 4%.
在美國，潛在的通貨膨脹率在9月份更高，達(dá)到了4%。
But a 24.8% increase in energy costs pushed the headline rate up even higher, to 5.4%.
但24.8%的能源成本漲幅將整體通脹率推高至5.4%。
These figures are likely to rise further in coming months, since rocketing fuel prices in October have not yet made their way into the statistics.
這些數(shù)字在未來幾個月可能會進(jìn)一步上升，因為10月份飛漲的燃油價格尚未計入統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)。
The contribution of energy to inflation will begin to fade once prices plateau—as they may in coming months, and even sooner if winter proves no colder than usual.
一旦價格趨于穩(wěn)定，能源對通脹的貢獻(xiàn)將開始減弱，未來幾個月可能會這樣，如果冬天不比往常更冷的話，這種情況可能會出現(xiàn)的更早。
Recent analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs, a bank, suggests that the effect of energy costs on America’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 2.15 percentage points in September
高盛銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家最近的分析表明，九月能源成本對美國同比通貨膨脹率的影響為2.15個百分點，
and will likely rise to 2.5 percentage points by the end of this year—taking the headline rate to 5.8%, holding other components constant—before eventually turning slightly negative by the end of 2022.
到今年年底可能會上升到2.5個百分點，將整體通脹率提高到5.8%，其他組成部分保持不變，最終在2022年底變得略有負(fù)值。
What about the damage to growth?
那么對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長造成的損害呢？
The predominant factor, in the near term at least, is the effect on consumption and investment.
至少在短期內(nèi)，最主要因素是對消費和投資的影響。
Over short time horizons, households and firms cannot easily cut energy use in response to rising costs, leaving less to spend on other goods and services.
短期內(nèi)，家庭和企業(yè)無法輕易地減少能源消耗以應(yīng)對成本上升，相應(yīng)地會減少在其他商品和服務(wù)上的支出。
This effect, according to work by Paul Edelstein of State Street, a bank, and Lutz Kilian of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is concentrated in the consumption of durable goods; a rise of 10% in the price of energy is associated with a 4.7% decline in spending on durables (and a particularly large drop in purchases of vehicles).
根據(jù)道富銀行的保羅·埃德爾斯坦和達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行的盧茨·基利安研究，這種影響集中在耐用品的消費上；能源價格上漲10%會導(dǎo)致消費品指數(shù)下降4.7%（汽車購買量降幅尤其大）。
Yet the researchers also note that consumption tends to fall by more in response to rising fuel costs than you might expect given the share of energy in budgets.
然而，研究人員也注意到，考慮到能源在預(yù)算中的份額，由于燃料成本上漲，消費量的下降幅度往往比你預(yù)期的要多。
That seems to be because energy shocks tend to depress sentiment.
這似乎是因為能源沖擊往往會抑制情緒。
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