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The sinking currency, by raising the cost of imports, has helped push up inflation by about eight percentage points over the past year, to a rate around four times the central bank’s target.
在過去一年里，由于進口成本的上升，貨幣不斷貶值，通脹率升高了約8個百分點，是央行目標的四倍左右。
Brazil demonstrates how inflation can get out of hand despite the best efforts of a central bank, because of fiscal woes.
巴西的情況表明，盡管央行盡了最大努力，但由于目前的財政困境，通脹仍可能失控。
After suffering hyperinflation in the early 1990s, when the annual inflation rate approached 3,000%, Brazil placed itself on a firmer macroeconomic footing by adopting budget reforms and enhancing the central bank’s independence.
在經(jīng)歷了90年代初的惡性通脹后，當年通脹率高達3000%時，巴西采取了預(yù)算改革和增強中央銀行的獨立性等措施，使自己的宏觀經(jīng)濟基礎(chǔ)更加穩(wěn)固。
But from 2014 to 2016, and again over the past year, the ability of the central bank to fight inflation has been threatened by an erosion of confidence in the public finances.
但從2014年到2016年，以及過去一年，央行抗擊通脹的能力也因公眾對公共財政信心下降而受到威脅。
Government spending in Brazil has surged since the onset of the pandemic.
自疫情爆發(fā)以來，巴西的政府支出激增。
Jair Bolsonaro, the president, plans to extend relief payments despite roaring inflation.
盡管通貨膨脹加劇，雅伊爾·博索納羅仍計劃增加救濟款項的發(fā)放。
Worries about debt sustainability have reduced investors’ confidence, leading to falling asset prices and a weaker currency.
對債務(wù)可持續(xù)性的擔(dān)憂削弱了投資者的信心，導(dǎo)致資產(chǎn)價格下跌和貨幣走軟。
Despite booming foreign demand for Brazil's commodity exports, the real has tumbled by nearly 30% since the beginning of 2020.
盡管國外對巴西大宗商品出口需求旺盛，但雷阿爾（巴西貨幣單位）自2020年初以來已下跌近30%。
Higher import prices have contributed to stubbornly high inflation, forcing the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate by nearly six percentage points since March.
進口價格上漲導(dǎo)致通脹居高不下，迫使央行自3月以來將指標利率上調(diào)了近6個百分點。
Yet interest rates may be approaching levels at which the additional fiscal cost they impose on the government exacerbates debt-sustainability worries and further weakens the currency, leaving the central bank in a no-win situation.
然而，利率水平可能會使強加給政府的額外財政成本加劇人們對債務(wù)可持續(xù)性的擔(dān)憂，同時進一步削弱貨幣，使央行陷入一種無利可圖的境地。
The real has dropped by nearly 2.5% since late October alone—after the central bank raised interest rates by a full 1.5 percentage points and promised to do the same again at its next meeting in December.
僅自10月下旬以來，雷阿爾就下跌了近2.5%，此前央行整整提高了1.5個百分點的利率，并承諾在12月的下一次會議上再次加息。
What happens if neither monetary nor fiscal policy can be counted upon for economic discipline?
如果貨幣政策和財政政策都不以經(jīng)濟紀律為依據(jù)，會發(fā)生什么？
Here Argentina provides an illustration.
阿根廷在這里提供了一個例證。
The government has long relied on the printing press to cover budget deficits, and has been in particular need of monetary financing since defaulting on its debt, for the ninth time in its history, in May 2020.
政府長期以來一直依賴印鈔機來彌補預(yù)算赤字，自2020年5月出現(xiàn)歷史上第九次債務(wù)違約以來，政府尤其需要貨幣融資。
Over the past two years the amount of money in circulation has risen at an average annual rate of more than 50%.
在過去的兩年里，流通中的貨幣以年均50%以上的速度增長。
The peso has fallen by over 60% against the dollar since the beginning of last year.
自去年年初以來，比索（阿根廷貨幣單位）兌美元的匯率下跌了60%以上。
Argentina, like Brazil, has experienced hyperinflation in recent times.
和巴西一樣，阿根廷最近也經(jīng)歷了惡性通貨膨脹。
Its economic situation may yet be salvaged.
它的經(jīng)濟狀況也許還能挽救。
But as policymakers in rich and poor countries alike confront the enormous economic and budgetary costs of covid-19, some may be tempted to depart from norms around monetary and fiscal policy.
但是，由于發(fā)達國家和落后國家的政策制定者都面臨疫情帶來的巨大經(jīng)濟和預(yù)算成本，一些人可能免不了會偏離貨幣和財政政策的規(guī)范。
The result, in some unhappy places, could be inflation that is too hot to handle.
在一些出現(xiàn)問題的國家，其結(jié)果可能是無法控制的嚴重通脹。
