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Finance and Economics
財經版塊
Labour costs
工人成本
The pandemic pay rise
疫情導致工資上漲
Wages are surging across the rich world
發達國家的工資正在飆升
What it means for the economic recovery
這對經濟復蘇意味著什么？
NOT LONG ago pundits obsessively checked the latest statistics on covid-19 cases.
不久以前，專家們著迷般地查看新冠肺炎病例的最新統計數據。
Now they are doing the same with the inflation numbers.
現在，他們對通脹數據也采取了同樣的做法。
American consumer prices rose by 5.4% in the year to September, according to figures published on October 13th, exceeding forecasts.
10月13日公布的數據顯示，截至9月份，美國消費者價格上漲了5.4%，超出了預期。
A survey from the New York Federal Reserve released the previous day showed a small pickup in consumers’ inflation expectations.
紐約聯邦儲備銀行前一天公布的調查顯示，消費者的通脹預期略有回升。
In its semi-annual report on the global economy the IMF warned that the prospects for inflation were “highly uncertain”.
國際貨幣基金組織在其關于全球經濟的半年度報告中警告稱，通脹前景“高度不確定”。
Soaring energy costs will push up consumer prices in the near term.
飆升的能源成本將在短期內推高消費價格。
Pay, too, is surging, as red-hot demand runs up against a shortage of workers.
工資也在飆升，因為來勢洶洶的需求遇到了工人短缺的問題。
Does it stand to fuel further price rises?
這是否會推動價格進一步上漲？
When covid-19 first struck, most forecasters expected bosses to slash bonuses and yearly rises, or even to cut basic pay, as they did after the global financial crisis in 2007-09.
新冠病毒剛來襲時，大多數預測者預計老板們會像2007年至2009年全球金融危機后那樣，削減獎金和年度加薪，甚至會削減基本工資。
Although wage growth did slow modestly early in the pandemic, that restraint has since been abandoned.
盡管工資增長在疫情初期確實略有放緩，之后便沒有限制了。
Oxford Economics, a consultancy, finds that pay in the rich world is growing at a rate well above its pre-pandemic average.
牛津經濟咨詢公司發現，發達國家的工資增長速度遠遠高于疫情前的平均水平。
The acceleration in compensation per worker across the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, is equally arresting.
經濟合作與發展組織（OECD，一個主要由發達國家成立的組織）人均工資的增長速度也同樣引人注目。
The wage numbers have sometimes misled during the pandemic.
在疫情期間，工資數字有時會誤導人們。
When lockdowns were imposed poorly paid people in service jobs dropped out of the workforce, for instance, which had the effect of raising average pay as measured by statisticians.
例如，當實行封鎖時，從事服務業工作的低收入者就會退出勞動市場，根據統計學家的計算，這將會提高平均工資。
Even so, wage growth seems to have been stronger than the scale of the economic downturn alone would have suggested.
盡管如此，工資增長似乎比經濟規模衰退來的更猛烈。
Goldman Sachs, a bank, has created a “tracker” that corrects for pandemic-related distortions.
高盛銀行已經開發了一種“追蹤器”，可以糾正與疫情相關的不平衡。
Underlying wage growth, at about 2.5% across the G10 group of large economies, is as fast as it was in 2018.
在10國集團的大型經濟體中，基本工資增長約為2.5%，與2018年一樣快。
No wonder then that pay has become a hot topic in the corporate world.
難怪薪酬成為了企業界的熱門話題。
On October 6th, Bank of America increased its company-wide minimum wage by 5%.
10月6日，美國銀行將全公司的最低工資提高了5%。
Amazon now boasts of roles in transport and packaging, paying $22.50 an hour in America, making left-wing activists’ demands for a federal minimum wage of $15 seem quaint.
亞馬遜現在吹噓自己在運輸和包裝方面的厲害，在美國每小時支付工人工資22.5美元，這使得左翼活動人士要求聯邦最低工資為15美元的要求顯得有些格格不入。
An index compiled by Goldman suggests that the share prices of American companies most exposed to rising labour costs have fallen by 4% since May, even as the broader stockmarket has risen by 7%.
高盛統計的一項數據顯示，自5月以來，受勞動力成本上漲影響，最大的美國公司的股價下跌了4%，而整體股市卻上漲了7%。
Even bosses in Germany, long used to acquiescent unions, now face demands to pay up.
即使是德國老板，長期以來已習慣默許工會，現在也面臨著支付高額工資的要求。
Some workers are benefiting more than others.
一些工人比其他人受益更多。
Analysis by The Economist of British wage data by industry suggests that annual pay growth is twice as dispersed as it was before the pandemic.
《經濟學人》對英國各行業工資數據的分析表明，各行業年度工資增長的分散性是疫情前的兩倍。
Wages in the accommodation and food-service sector, which is struggling to attract workers, rose by 8% in the year to July; increases in manufacturing have been more modest.
正努力吸引工人的住宿和餐飲服務行業工資在今年到7月份上漲了8%；制造業的增長則較為溫和。
In America the wages of the least-paid quartile of workers are growing 70% faster than those at the top.
在美國，工資最低的四分之一工人的工資增長速度比最高工資的工人快70%。
Underlying pay is rising about three times as quickly in Anglo-Saxon countries as in continental Europe.
盎格魯-撒克遜國家，基本工資的增長速度大約是歐洲大陸的三倍。
That could be because places such as America and Canada rely more on the consumer-facing industries experiencing the worst labour shortages.
這可能是因為美國和加拿大等地更多地依賴于面向消費者的行業，而這些行業正經歷著最嚴重的勞動力短缺。
And France and Italy, where annual pay growth is below 1%, probably do not face the same immigration crunch as Britain, which has Brexited, or Australia and New Zealand, which have closed their borders to keep out covid-19.
而年工資增長低于1%的法國和意大利，可能不會面臨像英國那樣的移民危機，因為英國已經脫歐，澳大利亞和新西蘭為防止新冠病毒輸入已經關閉了邊境。
Only a few years ago economists were bemoaning weak wage growth.
就在幾年前，經濟學家還在哀嘆工資增長疲軟。
So it may seem churlish not to pop the champagne now that the opposite is happening.
因此，既然相反的情況正在發生，不開香檳慶祝似乎都有些無禮了。
But pay can rise for a variety of reasons, some more benign than others.
但工資上漲的原因多種多樣，其中一些原因比較溫和。
For a given level of productivity, higher wages must show up in one of two ways: as higher inflation or as a higher “labour share” of GDP.
對于給定的生產力水平，更高的工資必須以兩種方式之一表現出來：要么是更高的通貨膨脹率，要么是更高的“勞動力份額”。
Take inflation first. Costlier staff may force bosses to raise the price of whatever they are selling.
先以通貨膨脹為例。成本更高的員工可能會迫使老板們提高他們所銷售產品的價格。
At worst, higher inflation could cancel out any rise in cash wages, leaving workers no better off than they were before (and perhaps encouraging them to seek further increases).
在最壞的情況下，更高的通貨膨脹率可能會抵消現金工資的任何增長，使工人的境況不會比以前更好（或許還會促進他們尋求進一步的加薪）。
American real wages are growing on a monthly basis but they remain lower than a year ago.
美國人的實際工資每月都在增長，但仍低于一年前的水平。
Some firms seem happy to pass on a bigger wage bill to consumers.
一些公司似乎樂于將更高的工資賬單轉嫁給消費者。
On a recent earnings call an executive at Domino’s Pizza discussed how the firm might offset wage rises (pricier Margheritas might be on the way).
在最近的一次財報電話會議上，達美樂披薩的一位高管討論了該公司如何抵消工資上漲的影響（價格更高的瑪格麗特披薩可能即將到來）。
Most S&P 500 companies are protecting margins “by passing on price increases to consumers”, says Goldman.
高盛表示，大多數標準普爾500指數公司都在“通過漲價轉嫁給消費者”來保護利潤率。
Other firms, however, may absorb higher wages by accepting lower profits.
然而，其他公司可能會通過接受較低的利潤來吸收更高的工資。
That would change the distribution of the economic pie, raising the “labour share”, or the proportion of GDP paid to workers as wages.
這將改變經濟蛋糕的分配，提高“勞動力份額”即支付給工人的工資占GDP的比例。
Our analysis suggests that the labour share in the G7 has risen by about one percentage point since the pandemic began—equivalent to $400bn or so of extra real income for households each year.
我們的分析表明，自疫情爆發以來，七國集團的勞動力份額上升了約1個百分點，相當于所有家庭每年增加約4000億美元的實際收入。
What does this mean for the wider economy?
這對整體經濟意味著什么？
A big topic of debate among economists is whether the labour share before covid-19 had been declining or not.
經濟學家們爭論的一個大話題是，在疫情之前，勞動力份額是否一直在下降。
It seems most likely that the share fell in America, so a recovery might be welcome.
似乎最有可能的是美國的份額下降了，所以復蘇可能是受歡迎的。
But an ever-rising labour share would be a worry: it would crimp companies’ profits and thus the investments that are crucial to improving long-run economic growth.
但不斷上升的勞動力份額將是一個令人擔憂的問題：這將影響公司的利潤，從而影響對改善長期經濟增長至關重要的投資。
There is another, happier, possibility.
還有另一種更令人開心的可能性。
If productivity rises, then wage growth need not cause sustained inflation, nor push up the labour share.
如果生產率提高，那么工資增長不一定會導致持續的通脹，也不會推高勞動力份額。
Instead the economic pie would grow, with more for everyone.
相反，經濟蛋糕增長，每個人都會得到更多。
Some evidence suggests that workers are doing more with less.
一些證據表明，工人們正在用更少的錢做更多的事情。
Firms are investing in new technologies to meet new demands, especially from online commerce.
公司正在投資新技術以滿足新的需求，特別是來自電子商務的新需求。
“Hybrid” work may be more efficient than everyone being in the office all the time.
“混合”工作可能比每個人一直呆在辦公室效率更高。
Productivity statistics are even cloudier than the wage ones; but since the third quarter of 2020 output per employed person has risen in 25 of the 29 rich countries for which figures are available.
生產力統計數據甚至比工資統計數據更加模糊；但自2020年第三季度以來，在29個可獲得數據的發達國家中，有25個國家的人均就業產出有所上升。
The rise in wages, then, seems to reflect a number of underlying economic forces, and need not feed through entirely to inflation.
因此，工資的上漲似乎反映了一些潛在的經濟力量，并不一定會完全導致通脹。
But forecasting prices is just as hard as predicting covid-19 case numbers.
但預測價格就像預測冠狀病毒病例數量一樣困難。
One thing is clear: that if the pay surge endures, the consequences will be profound.
有一件事是明確的：如果工資上漲持續下去，后果將是深遠的。
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