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In its most severe scenario there was a sudden change in climate policy alongside rapid progress in renewable energy development, causing a “double shock” for companies and a severe recession.
在最嚴重的情況下，氣候政策的突然變化伴隨著可再生能源開發的快速進展，給企業帶來“雙重沖擊”和嚴重的經濟衰退。
Even then, banks’ capital ratios fell by about four percentage points.
即便如此，銀行的資本比率仍下降了約4個百分點。
That is sizeable, but still less than what the banks experienced in this year’s regular stress tests by the European Banking Authority, which they were deemed to pass.
這一數字著實不低，但它仍低于今年歐洲銀行管理局(European Banking Authority)對銀行進行的常規壓力測試結果，它們獲得了測試通過認可。
To what extent are these stress tests realistic?
這些壓力測試有多真實呢？
Mark Campanale of Carbon Tracker is sceptical, pointing out that most firms are using out-of-date models.
碳追蹤公司的Mark Campanale對此持懷疑態度，他指出大多數公司使用的都是過時的模型。
If auditors were ever to stress companies’ assets against a much lower oil price, the associated write-downs could trigger a collapse in investor sentiment of the sort regulators fear, he claims.
他聲稱，如果審計機構在油價大幅下跌的情況下對公司資產施加壓力，相關的資產減記可能會引發監管機構所擔心的那種投資者情緒崩潰。
Nor do the stress tests include a full-blown Minsky crisis.
壓力測試也沒有包括全面的明斯基危機。
Yet in other respects they are conservative.
不過在其他方面，他們比較保守。
Most of the tests used an accelerated time frame—five years in the DNB and BdF cases—in effect assuming that firms are stuck with the balance-sheets they have today.
大多數測試使用了一個加速的時間框架——DNB和BdF是5年——其實是假設公司一直受困于眼下的資產負債表。
But it seems reasonable to think that banks and insurers will change their business models as the climate transition progresses, curbing the impact on the financial system.
但如果說，隨著氣候變化的發展，銀行和保險公司改變它們的業務模式，遏制其對金融體系的影響，也是有道理的。
The BdF ran a second exercise where firms were allowed to make realistic changes to their business models over 30 years.
BdF進行了第二次試驗，允許企業在30年的時間里對其商業模式做出實際改變。
Unsurprisingly, that allowed banks to sharply reduce lending to fossil-fuel sectors, and insurers to raise premiums.
不出所料，這使得銀行大幅減少了對化石燃料行業的貸款，保險公司也提高了保費。
Nonetheless, the stress tests reveal the importance of giving firms time to adapt.
盡管如此，壓力測試揭示了給公司適應時間的重要性。
And that makes a predictable path for government policy important.
因此政府政策的可預測性就變得很重要了。
The BdF found that credit losses were highest when policy was delayed and there was a sudden transition.
BdF發現，當政策推遲和突然轉變時，信貸損失最高。
Perhaps the most plausible scenario in which climate change affects financial stability is one in which governments dawdle, and then have no choice but to take drastic action in the future.
在氣候變化影響金融穩定的情況下，也許最可能出現的一幕是，各國政府拖拖拉拉，最后別無選擇，只得采取極端行動。
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