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For a start, the strategy seems to mean different things to different ratesetters. Jens Weidmann, the hawkish head of the Bundesbank and a member of the ECB's governing council, took pains to point out that although inflation might deviate from the target temporarily, the ECB would not aim to exceed it. That is in contrast to America's Federal Reserve, which also recently revised its target. It plans to aim for inflation of 2% on average, tolerating a period of overshooting in orderto make up for past shortfalls. But Olli Rehn, the doveish governor of Finland's central bank, said on July 9th that he expected the ECB's response to a shock to be quite similar to that of the Fed.
首先，對于不同的利率制定者來說，這一策略似乎有不同的含義。德國央行(Bundesbank)鷹派主席、歐洲央行管理委員會成員延斯·魏德曼曾極力表示，盡管通脹可能會暫時偏離目標，但歐洲央行不會試圖超過這一目標。這與美聯儲形成了鮮明對比，后者最近也修訂了其目標。它計劃以平均2%的通脹率為目標，為了彌補過去的不足，容忍一段時間的過度通脹。但是芬蘭中央銀行的鴿派行長奧利·雷恩于7月9日表示，他預計歐洲央行對沖擊的反應將與美聯儲相當相似。
The different views might explain why, although Ms Lagarde promised that the bank's next monetary-policy meeting on July 22nd would clarify what the new target means for policy, few analysts are expecting big changes. (The ECB is currently buying 80bn euros, or $95bn, in government and corporate bonds a month.) Economists at Barclays, a bank, reckon that the review should have no effect on the near-term path for monetary policy, and that the ECB would continue to support the euro area by buying bonds. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, another bank, predict that the ECB might bring forward an announcement to phase out its pandemic-related asset-purchase scheme, but beef up an older purchase programme instead.
盡管拉加德女士承諾將于7月22日召開的銀行下次貨幣政策會議將闡明新目標對政策來說意味著什么，但分析師預計變化不會很大，不同的觀點或許可以解釋其中的原因。(歐洲央行目前每月購買800億歐元(合950億美元)的政府和公司債券。)巴克萊銀行的經濟學家認為，這次評估對近期的貨幣政策不會有任何影響，歐洲央行將繼續通過購買債券來支持歐元區。另一家銀行摩根士丹利的分析師預測，歐洲央行可能會宣布逐步取消與新冠病毒相關的資產購買計劃，轉而加強一項舊的購買計劃。
Without big changes, it is hard to see how the ECB can do a better job of hitting its target. In June a range of economic forecasters, including those at the central bank, projected inflation to be in the region of 1.4-1.5% in 2023. If it is to successfully convince investors and households that it means business, then the bank will have to explain why, when it does not expect even to meet its old target, it should suddenly be able to hit its new one.
如果沒有大的改變，那么很難看出歐洲央行如何能更好地實現其目標。今年6月，包括央行在內的一系列經濟預測人士預計2023年的通脹率將在1.4-1.5%左右。如果它想成功說服投資者和家庭相信它是認真的，那么它就必須解釋為什么在連舊目標都達不到的情況下突然就能實現新目標了。
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