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High-frequency data present a similarly muddled picture. Global mobility measures are still edging up, according to a recent report by JPMorgan Chase, a bank, suggesting continued growth in GDP. Yet Britain, the first big, rich country to be hit hard by the Delta variant, is telling a different story. Our “economic-activity index” for the country, using Google data on visits to workplaces, transit stations and sites of retail and recreation, has dropped by about 5% since peaking in June (and there is little sign of greater mobility from July 19th onwards, when England lifted all domestic covid-19 restrictions). The British story seems likely to set a trend to a degree. In America surveys suggest that the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a pickup in people’s reported fear of the virus.
高頻數據也呈現出相似的混雜局面。根據摩根大通銀行最近的一份報告，全球流動性指標仍在緩慢上升，這表明GDP仍在持續增長。然而，作為第一個遭受德爾塔變異毒株重創的富裕大國，英國的情況卻截然不同。根據谷歌關于前往工作場所、公交站點和零售及娛樂地點的數據，我們國家的“經濟活動指數”自6月份見頂以來已經下降了約5%（自7月19日英格蘭解除地區內所有的新冠限制措施后，流動性幾乎沒有增加）。在某種程度上，英國的經歷似乎奠定了一種趨勢。在美國，調查顯示，隨著與德爾塔變異毒株有關的冠狀病毒感染的增加，人們對該病毒的恐懼也有所增加。
The hardest sort of data—releases from official statistical agencies—do not yet reflect the impact of rising covid-19 infections. But they also give contradictory signals. Measures of economic “surprise” in activity indicators (ie, a comparison of the published numbers with economists’ forecasts) still look fairly positive, especially in Europe. Housebuilding in America is proving more vigorous than almost anyone expected; Britain’s government is borrowing less than economic forecasters thought it would, a sign of a decent recovery in tax receipts. But there have also been disappointments. In America, for instance, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined in July, against expectations of an increase.
官方統計機構發布的最硬的數據還沒有反映出新冠肺炎感染人數上升所產生的影響。但它們也釋放了相互矛盾的信號。經濟活動指標中的“意外”指標（即公布的數據與經濟學家的預測相比較）看起來仍然相當樂觀，特別是在歐洲。事實證明，美國的住房建設幾乎比所有人預期的都要活躍；英國政府的借款比經濟預測者預期的要少，說明稅收收入恢復得相當不錯。但也有令人失望的地方。例如，在美國，7月份，密歇根大學的消費者信心指數有所下降，與預期的上升恰恰相反。
Owing in part to the movements in activity indicators, economists’ revisions to their expectations of GDP growth—our fourth measure—also send mixed messages. Analysts at JPMorgan reckon that American output will rise at an annual rate of 4.3% in July, which is lower than what they had forecast a week ago (yet represents an acceleration compared with the month of June). Economists at Goldman Sachs, another bank, see downside risks to the global economy but still expect a robust recovery in 2021.
部分歸因于經濟活動指標的變動，經濟學家們對GDP增長預期(我們的第四大指標)的修正也給出了復雜的信息。摩根大通的分析師認為，7月份美國的產出將以4.3%的年率增長，這比他們一周前預測的數字要低（但與6月份相比，增長速度有所加快）。另一家銀行高盛(Goldman Sachs)的經濟學家認為，全球經濟存在下行風險，但仍預計2021年將出現強勁復蘇。
Bring all this together and the picture is one of increasing uncertainty about whether or not the global economic recovery carries on at a rapid clip. In the rich world consumers are still sitting on piles of hoarded savings, and workers are in high demand. Yet the biggest rebound in activity, flattered by a favourable comparison with last year’s lockdown-induced depths and, in America, generous stimulus cheques, has passed. In its place are niggling doubts about whether the recovery can be sustained. Governments’ emergency stimulus programmes are coming to an end. There are growing fears that, as the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads, the resurgence in cases could impinge on economic growth, especially in places with large unvaccinated populations.
綜上所述，全球經濟能否快速復蘇的不確定性越來越大。在發達國家，消費者仍然坐擁大量儲蓄，對工人的需求也很高。然而，與去年因封鎖而導致的深度衰退和美國慷慨的經濟刺激計劃相比，我們所謂的經濟活動的最大反彈已經成為過去。取而代之的是對經濟復蘇能否持續的質疑。各國政府的緊急刺激計劃已接近尾聲。人們越來越擔心，隨著冠狀病毒變異毒株德爾塔的傳播，病例的反彈可能會影響經濟增長，尤其是在有眾多未接種疫苗人群的地區。
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