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來(lái)源于《商業(yè)》版塊
Boeing
波音
Up in the air
直上云霄
The aerospace giant ponders its bail-out options
這家航空巨頭正在考慮其救助方案
The coronavirus laid many of Boeing’s airline customers low—literally, for many have suspended flights. Fears about the giant’s fate, already uncertain because of the year-long grounding of its best-selling 737 max jet after two fatal crashes, became so rife that last month Goldman Sachs, a bank, felt compelled to stress that it “will remain a going concern”. The company itself insists likewise. It is probably right—the question is not whether it will survive but how.
冠狀病毒使波音公司的許多航空公司客戶受到了嚴(yán)重的打擊，因?yàn)樵S多公司已經(jīng)暫停了航班。人們對(duì)這個(gè)巨頭命運(yùn)的擔(dān)憂，已經(jīng)因?yàn)檫@一年而變得不確定——暢銷的波音737 max噴氣式飛機(jī)在兩起致命事故后長(zhǎng)期停飛，這種情況變得如此普遍，以至于上個(gè)月高盛銀行感到有必要強(qiáng)調(diào)，它將繼續(xù)經(jīng)營(yíng)下去。公司本身也堅(jiān)持同樣的觀點(diǎn)。這可能是對(duì)的，問(wèn)題不在于它能否存活，而在于如何存活。
Boeing has a safety net. A third of revenues in 2019 came from its defence arm, which, with its services division, will bring in $5bn in profits this year, reckons Bernstein, a research firm. It has cash on its balance- sheet, the balance of a $14bn credit line and has suspended its dividend. Dave Calhoun, Boeing’s new boss, says that the firm has $15bn in liquidity.
波音公司有一張安全網(wǎng)。研究公司伯恩斯坦估計(jì)，2019年三分之一的收入來(lái)自其國(guó)防部門，該部門及其服務(wù)部門今年將帶來(lái)50億美元的利潤(rùn)。該公司的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上有現(xiàn)金，還有140億美元的信貸額度，并已暫停派息。波音公司的新老板戴夫·卡爾霍恩表示，該公司擁有150億美元的流動(dòng)資金。
Jefferies, a bank, estimates that the company burns through $4.3bn of cash a month with a complete suspension of deliveries. So it may need government help if the crisis drags out. Lucky, then, that Congress folded its plea for assistance for American aviation into a $2trn stimulus package. This includes $25bn for carriers and $17bn for firms “critical to maintaining national security” (ie, Boeing). The terms are unclear and talks ongoing. But Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, has hinted that help would come with strings—including an equity stake for the state.
據(jù)投行杰富瑞集團(tuán)估計(jì)，該公司每月要燒掉43億美元現(xiàn)金，同時(shí)完全停止發(fā)貨。因此，如果危機(jī)持續(xù)下去，它可能需要政府的幫助。幸運(yùn)的是，國(guó)會(huì)將對(duì)美國(guó)航空業(yè)的援助納入2萬(wàn)億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃。其中包括250億美元用于航空公司，170億美元用于“對(duì)維護(hù)國(guó)家安全至關(guān)重要”的公司(如波音公司)。條款尚不清楚，談判仍在進(jìn)行。但是財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂芬•姆欽暗示，援助是有附帶條件的——包括國(guó)家的股份。
Boeing is unwilling to entertain this (for now). It may prefer to try to tap $454bn set aside in the stimulus for loans and guarantees to big firms, which would not involve giving up equity. Mr Calhoun says his company can raise money in the market. But the terms would be onerous. Despite recent improvements, its ten-year bonds trade below par and the cost of insuring its debt against default remains high.
波音公司(目前)不愿考慮這一點(diǎn)。它可能更愿意嘗試動(dòng)用刺激計(jì)劃中撥出的4540億美元，用于向大公司提供貸款和擔(dān)保，這不會(huì)涉及放棄股權(quán)。卡爾霍恩表示，他的公司可以在市場(chǎng)上籌集資金。但是條件會(huì)很苛刻。盡管最近有所改善，但其十年期債券交易低于票面價(jià)值，其債務(wù)違約保險(xiǎn)成本仍然很高。
Boeing hopes that business will bounce back quickly; it has been reluctant to furlough workers, notes Ken Herbert of Canaccord Genuity, a bank. It intends to restart making the 737 max in May (slowly at first). Goldman Sachs reckons that even if it delivers only half the planes planned for this year it will have the liquidity to cover a “deeply negative” cashflow. But airlines may not return to normal service for months, depressing sales. Mr Calhoun may have to pick between a bitter market rescue and an unsavoury government one.
波音公司希望業(yè)務(wù)能迅速反彈；加拿大投行加通貝祥的肯•赫伯特指出，銀行一直不愿讓員工休假。該公司打算在5月份重新開始生產(chǎn)737 max(起初進(jìn)展緩慢)。高盛認(rèn)為，即使它只交付了今年計(jì)劃的一半飛機(jī)，它也將有足夠的流動(dòng)性來(lái)支付“嚴(yán)重負(fù)”的現(xiàn)金流。但航空公司可能在幾個(gè)月內(nèi)無(wú)法恢復(fù)正常服務(wù)，這將抑制銷售。卡爾霍恩可能不得不在痛苦的市場(chǎng)救助和令人厭惡的政府救助之間做出選擇。
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