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經濟學人:前美聯儲主席保羅·沃爾克(2)

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He was struck by Friedrich Hayek's observation that the only way inflation cured unemployment was by disguising cuts in real wages. This linked inflation and deception indelibly in his head. Price instability destroyed trust, not only in the dollar but in government; and trust that officials would work for the common good, as his father had selflessly worked in Teaneck, was basic to the social contract. These feelings, more than any strong commitment to monetarism, convinced him that gentle rate-raising would not be enough.

弗里德里希·哈耶克認為通脹解決失業問題的唯一方法是掩蓋實際工資的削減,這讓保羅印象深刻。他在腦子里把通貨膨脹和欺騙不可磨滅地聯系在一起。價格不穩定不僅摧毀了人們對美元的信任,也摧毀了人們對政府的信任;還有對官員會為公眾利益工作的信任,就像他的父親無私地在蒂內克工作那樣,這是社會契約的基礎。這些感覺,而不是對貨幣主義的堅定承諾,讓他深信平緩的提升比率是不夠的。
And with inflation running at well over 5% for most of the 1970s, he arrived at the Fed ready to tighten until interest rates went through the roof. This caused fury and despair. As consumers stopped spending, home-building tanked and businesses closed down. Angry crowds and farmers on tractors besieged the Fed; the keys to cars that dealers could not sell were sent to him in the mail.
20世紀70年代的大多數時間通脹率都遠高于5%,他在上任美聯儲之初,就準備好要收緊貨幣政策,直到利率飆升。這導致了憤怒和絕望。隨著消費者停止消費,住房建設表現糟糕,企業大量倒閉。憤怒的人群和開著拖拉機的農民包圍了美聯儲;汽車經銷商把賣不出去的車鑰匙郵寄給他。

前美聯儲主席保羅·沃爾克(2).png

Though he had doubts, and wore out his office carpet with anxious pacing, he kept at it: not just because expectations would leap back up if he relented, but because persistence was a virtue in itself. And he stayed on guard, so much so that during Ronald Reagan's 1984 campaign he was ordered by Reagan himself not to dare raise interest rates before the election, even though, by then, he was not intending to. Reagan's men thought he wanted to hold the economy back, and tried to dislodge him. He opposed the president's tax cut in 1981 unless it was matched by cuts in spending, but this was not political; deficits led to inflation. Besides, to a man who believed in frugality and discipline, they were also offensive.

盡管他有疑慮,在辦公室焦急地走來走去,把地毯都磨壞了,但是他還是堅持了下來:不僅是因為政策溫和后人們的期待會重新高漲,而且是因為堅持本身就是一項美德。保羅保持著警惕,以至于在羅納德·里根1984年的競選中,里根本人對他下令,在精選之前不要提升利率。盡管那時候他也沒這個打算。里根的人認為他想要阻止經濟發展,并試圖將他趕下臺。保羅在1981年反對總統的減稅,除非同時削減開支,但這不是出于政治目的;赤字會導致通貨膨脹。此外,對于一個崇尚節儉和紀律的人來說,這也是一種冒犯。

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dislodge [dis'lɔdʒ]

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vt. 逐出,用力移出 vi. 移走,離開

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aircraft ['ɛəkrɑ:ft]

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n. 飛機

 
deception [di'sepʃən]

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n. 騙局,詭計,欺詐

 
opposed [ə'pəuzd]

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adj. 反對的,敵對的 v. 和 ... 起沖突,反抗

 
commitment [kə'mitmənt]

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n. 承諾,保證; 確定,實行

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despair [di'spɛə]

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n. 絕望,失望
vi. 失望

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frugality [fru:'gæliti]

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n. 節儉,儉省

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convinced [kən'vinst]

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adj. 信服的

 
unemployment ['ʌnim'plɔimənt]

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n. 失業,失業人數

 
persistence [pə'sistəns]

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n. 堅持,毅力

 
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