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經(jīng)濟學(xué)人:前美聯(lián)儲主席保羅·沃爾克(1)

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Paul Volcker, chairman of the Fed and America's doughtiest inflation-fighter, died on December 8th, aged 92

保羅·沃爾克是美聯(lián)儲主席和美國最勇猛的通貨膨脹斗士,他于12月8日去世,享年92歲。

In his spells of leisure time, when he had any, Paul Volcker liked to go fishing. Towering above a river in his jerkin and waders, fly cast, cigar firmly in mouth, was a good way to ruminate on big decisions. And he believed in rumination. "Procrastinate and flourish" was a favourite motto. Another, from George Washington, which his father had kept above his desk when he was city manager of Teaneck, New Jersey, was: "Do not suffer your good nature...to say yes when you ought to say no."

當保羅有閑暇時間時,他喜歡去釣魚。穿著背心和水靴,緊緊叼著雪茄,高高聳立在一條河上,這是沉思重大決策的好方法。他相信沉思。“拖延和繁榮”是他最喜歡的格言。另外一句則出自喬治·華盛頓,在擔任新澤西州蒂內(nèi)克市市執(zhí)行長時,他父親將這句話置于他桌子之上:“不要讓你的善良本性受折磨...不要在該說不的時候說是。”
So when he was asked in 1974 to be president of the New York Fed, he went off on a fishing trip to chew it over. And in meetings and congressional-committee hearings later, as chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987, he hid his bald head in smoke-clouds, as if he was slowly weighing up what answers he could possibly give. His salvo against America's inflation in 1979, which slew the dragon for decades, therefore seemed unusually abrupt. The times certainly required it, with annual inflation then at 12%. And his measures, announced at an extraordinary press conference in the boardroom of the Federal Reserve building in Washington, were drastic.
所以保羅在1974年受邀擔任紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行行長時,開啟了一次釣魚之旅來好好思考這個問題。隨后,他在1979年至1987年之間擔任美聯(lián)儲主席,在會議和國會委員會聽證會上,保羅把他那光禿禿的腦袋藏在煙霧里,仿佛在慢慢地掂量他能說出什么答案。因此,他在1979年對拖累美國幾十年的通貨膨脹的猛烈抨擊顯得格外突然。當時也確實有必要,年通脹率達到12%。在華盛頓聯(lián)邦儲備委員會大樓會議室召開的特別新聞發(fā)布會上,他宣布的措施也很極端。

前美聯(lián)儲主席保羅·沃爾克(1).png

From then on the Fed would control not the price of money, by adjusting the interest rate, but its supply, leaving interest rates to be set by the market. He would force America into recession to cure people of their expectations that since prices would keep on rising, they must keep on spending. The downturn that followed—double-dip, because he briefly took his foot off the brake—brought soaring unemployment, reaching 10.8% in 1982, and a federal funds rate of over 20%, the highest in history, before both rates and prices eased. By 1983 inflation was less than 4%. Yet he had been ruminating about the beast, and how to subdue it, since his Princeton student days.

從那時起,美聯(lián)儲不再通過調(diào)整利率來控制貨幣價格,而是調(diào)整它的供給,使市場決定利率。人們預(yù)想,因為價格會持續(xù)上漲,所以他們必須得繼續(xù)消費。保羅要迫使美國進入衰退來終止人們的這種預(yù)想。接下來的衰退-再次衰退,因為他暫時沒有踩剎車-帶來了極高的失業(yè)率,1982年失業(yè)率達到了10.8%,聯(lián)邦基金利率超20%,達到歷史最高,之后利率和價格都有所下降。到1983年,通脹率不到4%。然而,從保羅在普林斯頓上學(xué)時起,他就一直在思考這頭野獸,以及如何制服它。

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