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It has been a difficult time for anyone betting on oil. Climate change threatens long-term demand.
對那些押注石油的人而言，這是一段艱難的時期。氣候變化威脅著長期需求。
In the past year ample production, trade disputes and fears of an economic downturn have weighed on the price of crude.
在過去一年里，充足的產量、貿易爭端以及對經濟衰退的恐懼給原油價格帶來重壓。
On December 3rd Brent crude fell to $61 per barrel—18% below its April high.
12月3日，布倫特原油價格低至每桶61美元—比4月份的高點低了18%。
Yet by mid-December forces were aligning to support oil prices again.
但到12月中旬，各方力量再次聯手支持石油價格。
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed on December 6th to lower output by more than 2.1m barrels a day.
12月6日，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）及其盟國同意將日產石油量減少210萬桶以上。
Adding to the optimism, Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil company, listed 1.5% of its shares.
世界最大石油公司阿拉伯-美國石油公司出售1.5%的公司股份，增加了石油市場樂觀情緒。
On December 12th its market value surpassed an astonishing $2trn.
12月12日，該公司市值超過2萬億美元。
And on December 13th President Donald Trump announced a preliminary trade agreement with China.
12月13日，唐納德·特朗普總統宣布和中國達成初步貿易協議。
That bumped oil prices higher. As The Economist went to press on December 18th, Brent crude had risen to $65.74.
石油價格再次推高。12月18日，本刊付印時，布倫特原油價格已升至65.74美元。
Even so, oil gamblers are wrestling with two big uncertainties. The first concerns America's output.
即便如此，石油賭客們正面臨兩大不確定性。第一個擔憂是美國的石油產量。
The country pumped 17.8m barrels a day in November, compared with an average of 15.5m in 2018.
相較2018年平均1550萬桶的日產量，今年美國11月的石油日產量為1780萬桶。
But investors have grown impatient with frackers' meagre profits.
但投資者已經對石油公司的微薄利潤失去了耐心。
The cost of capital for American exploration and production companies has jumped by about 50% since mid-2016, according to Goldman Sachs.
根據高盛集團的數據，自2016年中期以來，美國勘探與生產公司的資本成本已上升了約50%。
At the start of December 663 rigs were operating in America, about a quarter fewer than a year earlier.
12月初，美國有663個鉆井平臺在作業，比一年前減少了四分之一。
America's oil output will not shrink in 2020, but its growth may slow. The question is when, and by how much.
2020年，美國石油產量不會縮水，但其增長可能會放緩。問題是時間和金額。
The second uncertainty concerns whether the members of OPEC's 23-country expanded alliance will stick to their new deal.
第二個不確定涉及OPEC擴大后的23個成員國是否會堅持他們的新協議。
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