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The past 12 months give reason for scepticism. In December 2018 OPEC and its partners agreed to reduce output by 1.2m barrels a day.
過去12個月的種種給了我們懷疑的理由。2018年12月，OPEC及其合作伙伴同意將日產量削減120萬桶。
Iraq, Nigeria and Russia, among others, have regularly exceeded their allowed limits.
其中伊拉克、尼日利亞和俄羅斯經常超過他們允許的限額。
To compensate, Saudi Arabia, OPEC's most powerful member,
根據國際能源署數據，作為補償，
slashed its own production by an average of 500,000 additional barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.
OPEC最主要成員國沙特阿拉伯將自己的日產量平均產量額外削減了50萬桶。
Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that in 2020 1.8m additional barrels a day will be pumped in countries outside the OPEC alliance,
根據摩根士丹利分析師估計，到2020年，OPEC聯盟以外的國家每天將增產180萬桶
including Brazil, Guyana and Norway. In the run-up to OPEC's meeting in Vienna in December,
其中包括巴西、圭亞那和挪威。在OPEC12月維也納會議前夕，
it was doubtful whether the group would sustain the cuts agreed to a year earlier, let alone go further.
該組織是否將維持一年前達成的減產協議都值得懷疑，更不用說進一步減產了。
In the end Saudi Arabia's new oil minister, Abdulaziz bin Salman, wrangled an impressive deal.
最終，沙特阿拉伯新任能源部長Abdulaziz Bin Salman達成了一項令人印象深刻的協議。
The alliance's 1.2m-barrel cut will extend to 1.7m in January.
該聯盟的120萬桶減產量將在明年1月擴大至170萬桶。
Additional reductions led by Saudi Arabia will push the total to 2.1m barrels a day.
以沙特為首的額外減產將使日產總量達到210萬桶。
The broader group's collective output will be 1.3% below its level in November.
更廣泛組織的整體產量較11月份下降1.3%。
It remains to be seen, however, if the cuts will materialise—or last. The new agreement covers only the first quarter of 2020.
然而，減產是否會兌現，或持續，仍有待觀察。新協議只涵蓋2020年第一季度。
It also allows Russia to increase its output of condensate, a type of light crude.
該協議還允許俄羅斯增加凝析油（一種輕質原油）的產量。
Saudi Arabia remains keen to support prices, both for its budget and to make Aramco's listing a success.
沙特阿拉伯仍然熱衷于支撐油價，既為了預算，也為了讓阿拉伯-美國石油公司的上市獲得成功。
The firm's soaring valuation in early trading may not be sustainable.
該公司在早期交易中飆升的估值可能無法維系。
Many big global investors were repelled by its low dividend yield, security risks and state control.
很多全球大型投資者對其低股息收益率、安全風險和政府控制感到反感。
But local retail investors piled in, attracted partly by the sweetener of an extra free share for every ten they buy and hold for six months.
但當地小額投資者蜂擁而至，部分原因是他們每購買10股并持有6個月，就可以獲得額外的免費股票。
If Saudi Arabia's allies fail to stick to their promised cuts, the kingdom will have a choice: slash its own production further or let prices fall. Neither is appealing.
如果沙特的盟友沒能堅持減產承諾，那么該國將面臨一個選擇：要么進一步削減產量，要么讓價格下跌。兩者都沒什么吸引力。
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