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Yet oil markets have shrugged it all off.
然而，石油市場對此不屑一顧。
"In the past such geopolitical tensions gave a boost to oil prices," says Fatih Birol, the head of the IEA.
IEA署長法蒂·比羅爾表示，“以前這種地緣政治緊張曾推高油價。”
The price of Brent crude has subsided from a high of nearly $75 in April to around $60 today.
布倫特原油價格已從4月份近75美元的高點回落至目前的約60美元。
One reason is that America's frackers have continued to pump more oil.
其中一個原因是美國的水力壓裂組織在繼續開采更多的石油。
The country's daily output in September was 12% above last year's average.
9月，該國的日產量比去年平均水平高出12%。
It is also because economic growth has slowed, with oil demand suffering not just in Japan
另一個原因是經濟增長放緩，石油需求受到影響的不僅僅是日本
but in India and South-East Asia, where it was expected to grow strongly.
印度和東南亞也受到影響，曾有預測這些國家石油需求將強勁增長。
Next year economic growth may tick up. Investors are pressing American shale companies to reduce spending and boost profits.
明年經濟增長可能加快。投資者正在敦促美國頁巖油公司減少支出，提高利潤。
That would result in flatter production and, in turn, help nudge prices higher.
這將導致產量下降，進而推高油價。
But new supply elsewhere looks set to push prices in the other direction.
但其他地方的新供應似乎將推動價格向另一個方向上漲。
ExxonMobil is ramping up production off the coast of Guyana.
埃克森美孚公司正在圭亞那海岸外提高產量。
Brazil's attempt to auction new offshore leases this month was a failure—supermajors, such as ExxonMobil and BP, declined to bid.
本月，巴西試圖拍賣新的離岸租約，但以失敗告終—埃克森美孚和英國石油等大型石油公司拒絕投標。
Yet investments already made offshore mean that by 2021 Brazil's crude production may be 18% higher than this year, according to IHS Markit.
但根據IHS Markit，已經在海外進行的投資意味著，到2021年，巴西的原油產量可能會比今年高出18%。
Norway will also see a surge in output.
挪威的石油產量也將大幅增長。
Notwithstanding its announcement in October that its sovereign-wealth fund
雖然挪威在10月份宣布其主權財富基金
would sell its holdings in oil exploration and production companies,
將出售其在石油勘探和生產公司的股份，
the country itself is expected to increase production markedly in the coming years.
但該國本身也有望在未來幾年顯著提高其產量。
Its state-backed energy giant, Equinor, said in October that Johan Sverdrup, a giant new oilfield in the North Sea, had begun producing crude.
其國家能源巨頭Equinor在10月表示，北海的大型新油田Johan Sverdrup已經開始生產原油。
The broadened OPEC alliance must now decide whether to hold at the reductions agreed to last year, or to cut harder.
擴張后的OPEC聯盟現在必須決定是維持去年達成的減產協議，還是加大減產力度。
The current arrangement may be insufficient to keep Brent crude above $60 a barrel.
目前的協議或許不足以將布倫特原油保持在每桶60美元以上。
Yet there may be little appetite for dramatically lower production targets.
但人們可能對大幅降低產量目標沒什么興趣。
Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-backed oil company, plans to list some of its shares in mid-December, shortly after OPEC's meeting.
沙特政府支持的沙特阿美石油公司計劃在OPEC會議后不久的12月中旬上市部分股票。
Any agreement for a big cut in the kingdom's output would lower estimates for Aramco's earnings,
桑福德伯恩斯坦的Neil Beveridge指出，任何大幅削減沙特石油產量的協議，
which would suppress its valuation, points out Neil Beveridge of Bernstein.
都將降低沙特阿美石油公司的盈利預期，從而壓低其估值。
On the other hand, he says, "the worst thing that could happen to Aramco would be to see the listing go ahead and see the oil price collapse."
另一方面，他說道，“對沙特阿美石油公司來說，最糟糕的可能是上市繼續進行，然而油價暴跌。”
This has been a dramatic year on oil markets. December could bring further plot twists.
對于石油市場來說，今年是充滿戲劇性的一年。12月可能會出現更多情節轉折。
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