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Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, live in a state of uneasy anticipation.
石油輸出國組織（簡稱OPEC）成員國正處于一種不安的預期之中。
Concern about climate change may mean demand for oil wanes in the coming decades. OPEC's power in oil markets is fading fast.
對氣候變化的擔憂可能意味著未來幾十年石油需求的減少。OPEC在石油市場的影響力正在迅速減弱。
On November 13th the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental forecaster,
11月13日，政府間預測機構國際能源署 （IEA）預測
predicted that by 2030 OPEC and Russia, an ally, would pump just 47% of the world's crude. Yet OPEC has a more immediate problem at hand.
到2030年，OPEC及其盟國俄羅斯的原油產量將僅占全球的47%。但OPEC面臨著一個更為緊迫的問題。
Global demand for oil has been unexpectedly anaemic this year.
今年全球石油需求出人意料地疲軟。
Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, estimates that it may have risen by just 0.8%, the slowest pace since the financial crisis.
研究公司桑福德伯恩斯坦估計其可能僅增長了0.8%，是金融危機以來的最低增速。
OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, are due to meet in Vienna on December 5th and 6th.
OPEC和俄羅斯領導的盟國將于12月5日和6日在維也納會面。
The first question is whether they will announce a new plan to support the oil price. If they do, the second question is whether they will stick to it.
第一個問題是他們是否會宣布支持油價的新計劃。如果是，那么第二個問題是他們是否會堅持該計劃。
Technically, a plan is already in place.
從技術上講，一個計劃已經就位。
In December 2018 the broadened OPEC alliance announced a cut in production of 1.2m barrels a day,
2018年12月，擴大后的OPEC聯盟宣布每日減產120萬桶，
with the intention of pushing up the price of crude. That agreement has been extended to March 2020.
其目的是推高原油價格。該協議已被延期至2020年3月。
But several OPEC members, including Iraq and Nigeria, have frequently pumped more oil than allowed by last year's deal.
但包括伊拉克和尼日利亞在內的幾個OPEC成員國，經常超出去年協議規定的產量。
Russia was supposed to help OPEC move into a new era.
俄羅斯本應幫助OPEC進入一個新時代。
But the starting point from which it agreed to cut production was unusually high—
但其同意的減產起點異常的高—
and output this year has exceeded its quota even so.
盡管如此，今年的產量還是超過了配額。
The country's oil industry "is really chafing under these production cuts", says Aaron Brady of IHS Markit, a data and research firm.
數據和研究公司IHS Markit的Aaron Brady表示，這個國家的石油工業“真的對減產感到惱火”。
The result is that Russia's average daily production so far in 2019, after the OPEC deal to lower output,
其結果是，在OPEC達成減產協議后，俄羅斯2019年迄今為止的平均日產量
is higher than the average in 2018, before the deal was struck. Saudi Arabia has adjusted accordingly.
高于達成協議前2018年的平均水平。沙特阿拉伯也做出了相應調整。
In July and August, for instance, the kingdom cut output by more than twice the amount required by last year's agreement.
例如，在7月和8月，沙特削減的產量是去年協議要求的兩倍多。
But such efforts have proved insufficient to lift oil prices. On the face of it, they should have been buoyant.
但事實證明，這些努力不足以提振油價。從表面上看，油價本應該上漲。
American sanctions have clamped down on exports from Venezuela and Iran,
美國的制裁已經強行壓制了委內瑞拉和伊朗的出口，
respectively the possessors of the world's largest and fourth-largest proved oil reserves. Tankers have been seized in the Gulf.
這兩個國家分別擁有世界上最大和第四大的石油探明儲量。油輪在海灣被扣押。
Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, is at risk of being engulfed by protests.
OPEC的第二大產油國伊朗面臨著被抗議活動吞沒的風險。
Most notably, in September a drone attack knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's production.
最引人注目的是，今年9月的一次無人機襲擊摧毀了沙特阿拉伯一半以上的石油產量。
The loss was more severe than that caused by the Iranian revolution in 1979 or Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
其損失比1979年伊朗革命和1990年伊拉克入侵科威特造成的損失更為嚴重。
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