It may be wise to double down this way. However much risk-averse investors may prefer share buy-backs to ambitious capital-spending plans, halting investment could be seen as a flag of surrender by the likes of Amazon. That said, FedEx’s failures—to respond more quickly to the changing e-commerce landscape, to read the runes of geopolitics and to end its stubborn refusal to join its two businesses—reflect a company whose management is long in the tooth. Including Mr Smith, FedEx’s ten top executives average more than three decades at the firm, which is extraordinary.

It is hard not to misread the changing rules of business when you once rewrote them—even harder when some of your oldest friends are your sounding board. It is clear that the directors have no stomach for replacing their chairman in the foreseeable future. But unless Mr Smith brings in fresh executives, and then listens to them, his days at the business blackjack table should be numbered. Think FredExit, in other words.

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