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For the purposes of decision-making, the IMF's 189 member countries are divided into 24 constituencies of peculiar shapes and sizes.
為便于決策，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的189個成員國被劃分為24個特殊形狀和規模的選區。
Ghana, for example, belongs to the same group as Afghanistan. Ecuador sits with East Timor.
例如加納和阿富汗同屬一組。厄瓜多爾與東帝汶一組。
But in choosing the next boss after Christine Lagarde moves to the European Central Bank in October,
但在選擇下一任總裁時（克里斯蒂娜·拉加德將于10月加入歐洲央行），
the most decisive constituency may be a different group entirely: the "New Hanseatic League".
最具決定性的選區可能是完全不同的群體：“新漢薩同盟”。
This includes eight small, northern members of the European Union (EU) with bad weather and good credit ratings.
該同盟包括八個歐盟（EU）北部小國，這些地方氣候惡劣，但信用評級良好。
They lost out in the fight for big EU jobs earlier this month. In compensation they may have a large say in Europe's pick to lead the fund.
本月早些時候，他們在爭奪歐盟重要職位的斗爭中落敗。作為補償，他們可能在對歐洲選擇IMF領導人上有很大的發言權。
That could be good news for Mark Carney, the charismatic and credentialled boss of the Bank of England.
這對馬克·卡尼而言可能是件好事，他是英格蘭銀行行長，魅力超凡且很有資歷。
As well as Canadian and British citizenship, he holds a passport from Ireland, one of the new Hanseatics.
除了加拿大和英國公民身份，他還持有愛爾蘭護照，愛爾蘭是新漢薩同盟成員之一。
If Ireland champions his cause in the league, and the league backs him within the union, he would be hard to resist within the fund.
如果愛爾蘭在同盟中捍衛他的事業，且同盟也在聯盟中支持他，那么在基金組織中，他將很難抗拒。
By convention the IMF is led by whichever European candidate the Americans can live with.
按照慣例，IMF由美國人能夠容忍的任何一位歐洲候選人領導。
And the Americans are unlikely to object to him,
并且美國人不可能反對他，
especially after the Europeans dutifully supported Washington's choice to run the World Bank earlier this year.
尤其是在今年早些時候，歐洲盡職盡責地支持美國選擇執掌世界銀行之后。
What about an Asian rival? One obvious candidate is Tharman Shanmugaratnam,
那亞洲的競爭對手呢？一位顯而易見的候選人是尚達曼
a former finance minister and deputy prime minister of Singapore, who also chairs its monetary authority.
新加坡前財政部長兼副總理，現任新加坡金融管理局主席。
As well as a background in economics, he has the virtue of hailing from a small country that is neither improvident nor imperious—
除了經濟背景，他還有一個優點，那就是來自一個既不揮霍也不專橫的小國—
the kind of country that would be a member of Asia's Hanseatic league if it had one.
如果有這樣一個國家，那么它將成為亞洲漢薩同盟的一員。
But even in a fair race he would struggle to beat Mr Carney, who has run two of the world's biggest central banks.
但即使在公平的競爭中，他也很難擊敗卡尼，卡尼執掌著全球最大的兩家央行。
And given the horse-trading between Europe and America, the IMF race will not be entirely fair.
鑒于歐洲和美國之間的精明交易，IMF的競爭不可能完全公平。
Why, then, bother entering? Candidates from outside Europe face a Catch-22:
那么，為什么要費力地進去呢？歐洲以外的候選人要面臨一個無法擺脫的困境：
anyone credible enough to win an unrigged race will not be crazy enough to enter a rigged one.
任何一個足夠可信并能夠贏得一場不受操縱的競選的人，都不會瘋狂到參加一場受操縱的競選。
That is a pity, because a contest might force the fund's members to think harder about the institution's future.
這是一個遺憾，因為一場競賽可能會迫使基金組織的成員更加努力地思考該機構的未來。
In 2004 Mr Shanmugaratnam revealed that he kept four canes in his cupboard, one for each of his children.
在2004年，尚達曼透露他在碗柜里放了四根藤條，一個孩子一根。
But he never had to use them. That is many people's ideal for how the IMF should work.
但他從來沒有用過。這是許多人對IMF該如何運作的理想看法。
Borrowing countries would live up to its standards of economic behaviour, fearing that otherwise it would refuse further lending.
借款國將要符合其經濟行為的標準，否則將有被IMF拒絕進一步放貸的擔心。
And speculators would be intimidated by the "flexible credit lines" and other tools in its cupboard,
而投機者將受到“靈活信貸額度”及櫥柜中其他工具的威脅
meaning that they would never test the currencies and creditworthiness those tools are designed to defend.
這意味著他們永遠不會去檢驗那些工具所捍衛的貨幣和好信譽。
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